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MMAUG Exclusive
MMA Underground's Fighters to watch in 2014
Jan 12, 2014
Every once in a while there is a fighter that comes along that possess the sturdy momentum and overall promise to make a run at their respective divisions and possible title.
Unlike most top contenders that always stay positioned in yearly title discussions, these "Under the radar fighters" often have to exceed expectations to make noise in crowded weight classes. As history has shown us, at times it has been a wily veteran scratching his way to the top or a young hard nosed tough kid seeking recognition, the list is practically open-ended.
However, based on recent victories and upcoming opportunities, here are a few deserving fighters, that us here at MMA Underground are ready to make that run to the top.
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Bobby Green
This may be a little over the top type of comparison, but Bobby Green's Octagon head work and undetectable counter-punching resembles that of boxing phenom Floyd Mayweather. Okay now I know some of you are thinking "How can we compare Green to Mayweather". Yes, We know Green isn't half as effective as Mayweather is at avoiding damage, but it's still entertaining to see him belittle an opponent with his hands at his side and head on a swivel. This kid is still very elusive and fun to watch.
Whether that holds up against top tier contenders has yet to be seen, but on the heels of three UFC victories in 2013, we'll soon find out.
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Myles Jury
Some of you might not know too much about Myles "Fury" Jury...but he is all set to take on the stage against uber-popular Diego Sanchez at UFC 171.
The fight comes after four UFC victories for the 25-year-old Jury, who has finished all but two of his 13 total career wins before the third round. If Jury can somehow put away Sanchez, who simply can't be put away, he'll automatically jump into contention by the end of 2014.
MMAUG Exclusive
Michael Johnson volunteers for the fight ‘nobody’ wants: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Jan 13, 2014
As some of you saw UFC President Dana White admitting he’s struggling to find anyone to face undefeated Russian power house Khabib Nurmagomedov. Nate Diaz was considered a worth opponent until White came out publically saying that Khabib Nurmagomedov would not be fighting Nate Diaz at one of the promotion's upcoming events, because Diaz "turned the fight down."
So with all the drama surrounding Dana White and Nate Diaz, a contender emerges from the smoke...Michael Johnson.
Johnson does have a pair of impressive outings under his belt, the 27-year-old lightweight Michael Johnson (12-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC), took to Twitter to announce he would be happy to take on “The Eagle.”
Johnson’s offer was in reply to White’s recent claim that not only had Nate Diaz declined a matchup with Nurmagomedov but that “Nobody wants to fight Khabib.” Diaz has denied turning down the matchup. "Dana and the UFC are full of sh*t" according to the outspoken slugger, who took to his Twitter account to let the world know he never turned down a fight against "The Eagle," not long after he initially tweeted, "F U PAY ME."
Johnson appears ready to take on just about anybody in the lightweight division at this point, as he recently asked for Diaz, as well.
Johnson, a finalist on “The Ultimate Fighter 12” had his career breifly derailed a bit by back-to-back losses to Reza Madadi and Myles Jury. However, he’s looked scintillating in the wins over Tibau and Lauzon and now looks primed for a big matchup.
And it seems he’ll just keep asking for the biggest names available until the UFC finally grants his wish.
MMAUG Exclusive
MMA Underground's take on submissions
Jan 13, 2014
What is a submission?
A submission is a way to finish a fight without striking. Most of these techniques are from BJJ, Judo, and other grappling practices. Tapping to strikes, injury, fatigue or frustration are not submissions. "Technical submissions" as stopped by refs are counted. Submissions are, where possible, counted even if the official result was later overturned to NC.
The History of Submissions in the UFC?
History shows, the time period where most submissions took place in the UFC was between 1993 - 1999. Out of 261 fights that were recorded during that time frame, 83 fights were won by a form of submission (31.8%). The most common submission was the Rear Naked Choke (24%).
Between the years 2000 - 2005, the amount of submissions decreased to 22%. The amount of fights slightly increased to 268 and the amount of submission dropped to 59, with most of them being the Rear Naked Choke (25%).
Since 2006 til the end of 2013, the amount of fights have drastically increased to an average of 253 fights per year. The amount of fights won by submission slightly increased to an average of 23% and again most of those submission coming from the Rear Naked Choke (38%).
The most memorable Rear Naked Choke?
Took place at UFC 76, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua was the top ranked light-heavyweight fighter in the world going into his fight with Forrest Griffin.
Forrest Griffin, winner of TUF One, is a good fighter, but most viewed him as a sacrificial lamb for Shogun to claim his throne at the top of the UFC 205 pound division. Much like Eddie Sanchez.
However, someone forgot to mention it to Forrest, who managed to outpoint the more aggressive Brazilian for two and a half rounds before finally turning it into a grappling match and submitting Shogun with 15 seconds left in the round. Lesson learned: No one is unbeatable.
The most memorable Armbar?
This has to be one of the best Armbar submissions in the history of MMA. This took place on March 3, 2012. Ronda Rousey approached international judo a little differently than her contemporaries. She didn't look for the throw first—she attacked the arm. Always.
In her MMA career, nothing has changed. Eleven fights (including 3 amateur fights), eleven armbar submissions. Miesha Tate said she wouldn't fall for Rousey's tricks. She was defenseless. Can anyone stop the "Rowdy" one?
http://sports.sho.com/videos/1080
Here is a video that shows some of the best submissions in UFC history...Enjoy!
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Cormier vs Cummins breakdown
February 20, 2014 at 1:55am
+900 to -1200. +900 to -1200. Let us all take a moment to allow these sort of odds to settle in. If you aren’t a betting person this basically means that there is no way in hell that the +900 guy wins the fight. Normally I abhor these sort of odds because they are thoroughly disrespectful but in this case it’s justified. Of course I am talking about the co main event of the evening where we will see Daniel Cormier(13-0) fighting Pat Cummins(4-0). I don’t want to make it sound like Cummins is unskilled but this is too much too fast. That being said I would like to go on record saying that Cummins has some serious balls and this is something that no one could ever take from him. Not only does he have a huge professional MMA experience gap but he is also taking this fight on ten days notice.
So, I guess we can start with Cummins. One thing that you should know is that he is an extremely talented wrestler who walked on to the Penn State squad and followed that up with two NCAA All American titles. Going into this fight, Cummins has said that he has made Cormier cry in practice sessions during their wrestling days. I suspect that this has a lot to do with why the UFC picked him for this one as they need to have some sort of drawing power since former UFC light heavyweight champ Rashad Evans(19-3) had to pull out of the fight due to a knee injury. Gimmicks aside, I find it very difficult to see how Cummins pulls the win here outside of a flash KO win. Sure, he is an elite wrestler but Cormier is better as not only does he have olympic wrestling experience but he has already beaten Cummins in wrestling competition. As if this isn’t enough, he hasn’t really gotten the chance to fight anyone of note in the MMA realm and it shows as his opponents have a combined 10-20-1 record. This is just so bad for Cummins.
No disrespect intended but while Cummins was working at a coffee shop, Cormier was fighting some of the most talented heavyweights available and winning. This is of course not Cummins fault because with his credentials he found it difficult to find opponents on the regional scene and with a lack of experience it was virtually impossible to get signed to any larger promotions where he might find opponents of quality. While this is lamentable it doesn’t change the fact that this fight is too much too soon and he is nothing more than a body to fill the void left by Rashad Evans. I am really doing my best here to not dismiss Cummins but it is so hard to see how he wins this fight if he can’t find success with his wrestling. Cummins striking lacks any real polish due to the strength of his opposition and this will be bad if he cannot put Cormier on his back.
Though Cormier is a student of the wrestling game, his striking has come along way and is very dynamic and crisp. Cormier has shown excellent footwork and has demonstrated the ability to intermix his striking with his wrestling which can keep his opponents off balance and frustrated. His wrestling is also pretty well adapted for MMA which is important as just because you are a good wrestler, that doesn’t mean it automatically transfers into the cage. I see Cormier winning this thing by TKO/KO or however he wants really. This is just too tall of a task and we have not seen enough from Cummins to expect otherwise. Of course we get the chance to see it all play out on Saturday but I wouldn’t hold my breath if I was rooting for a Cummins victory.
MMAUG Exclusive
Maia vs Macdonald breakdown
February 20, 2014 at 1:39am
The departure of GSP has created a massive vacuum in the UFC welterweight division... The division seems shallower than it was before and now we have the top 10 scrambling to take the throne vacated by Georges St. Pierre. In this fight we see Rory “Ares” Macdonald (15-2) seeking to rebound from a split decision loss to Robbie Lawler against Demian Maia(18-5) who is also coming off of a loss to Jake Shields. The winner of this fight may very well find themselves thrust into the outer edges of the title picture. Up until his most recent loss, Demian Maia has shown new life at 170 after making the change from middleweight(185) and even in the loss to Jon Fitch he didn’t look too bad. Right now the odds hover in the neighborhood of -250/+250 for Macdonald which feels about right.
I normally don’t delve into any intangibles this early but I think that in this fight one intangible will play a huge factor in this fight. The question is, which Rory Macdonald will show up on saturday. Sure, Macdonald has only two losses but I feel that focus played a huge role in both of those losses. When Macdonald is focused he is just so damn good. Creepy, but about as well rounded as they come. He is a master at using his jab to create distance while netting him valuable counter striking opportunities. Did I also mention that he is virtually impossible to take down and has excellent submission defense? The latter is another huge key in this matchup because this is the one area that I feel Maia will have the upper hand. In recent decisions we have seen Macdonald content to stay on the outside and use his jabs and kicks to frustrate his opponent en route to a decision victory. This is how I see this fight playing out. Sure, Maia has underrated wrestling but he is no GSP or Matt Hughes and will likely find enormous difficulty closing the distance and securing the takedown. Even if Maia closes the distance, I find it unlikely he gets Macdonald down.
Where Maia can make this fight his is by taking advantage of any and all mistakes that Macdonald will make. This will be key because Macdonald is adept at sticking to the masterful gameplans that Firas Zahabi and Tristar gym have become known for. This is also the very same reason that Maia may lose funny enough. I am sure that leading into this fight that Zahabi has made sure that Macdonald understands that he should not play in Maia’s guard as this is where Maia can create openings and opportunities to display his elite level submissions. Not only is Maia skilled off of his back but Macdonald hasn’t shown the most stifling of top games and lets not forget he is often tepid from the top position which can spell disaster against someone like Maia.
Another thing that I am sure “Ares” will incorporate into his game plan is to keep his jabs and kicks very active to keep Maia at distance. This is important because Macdonald has yet to show any devastating knockout power and this may embolden Maia to come forward with plenty of pressure in an effort to create more opportunities to close the distance and turn this into his kind of fight. This is really how Maia stands the best chance of winning because he has to realize that if he is too tepid and doesn’t push forward it will turn out to be a painful night of eating plenty of jabs and getting frustrated. I think that Maia really needs to understand and realize this for him to have any success. Not only is he already giving up about four inches of reach to a skilled striker but he is also southpaw which will net Macdonald plenty of counter striking opportunities and angles to capitalize on. I like Maia for the upset and would put some coin on it but Macdonald should win this by decision if he shows up and utilizes the best strategy.
MMAUG Exclusive
Pyle vs Waldburger breakdown
February 20, 2014 at 1:39am
On the second event of the main card we will see Mike “Quicksand” Pyle(25-9-1) fighting opposite Anthony “TJ” Waldburger(16-8) in a fight that is exciting but doesn’t mean much in the realm of the immediate title picture. But who cares anyway? I’m a consumer of violence and this fight is poised to provide us with some of that. The potential is so high for fireworks as both of these men are very well rounded but they are also finishers who give everything they have to finish the fight. The real question that is difficult to answer is this: Where will this fight take place? I am thinking we will see a true mixed martial arts fight here with striking and grappling being displayed interchangeably. That being said I think that if both of these guys can nullify each others grappling offense we may see the fight decided on the feet.
This very scenario could prove to be pretty bad for Waldburger and I think the bookies agree with a line that favors “Quicksand” in the neighborhood of -180/+170. The line isn’t too wide open because of the fact that we really can’t tell where the fight will take place looking at stats. I think that if it does stay on the feet though we may find Waldburger laying on his back staring at the rafters. Of the eight career losses that Waldburger has, six of them come by KO/TKO which is telling. What makes things even worse is the fact that TJ has fairly porous striking defense which can end badly against Pyle whom has found success as of late putting people away with clever striking. I think that for Waldburger to win here he will need to go for the takedown and sap Pyle’s energy as much as possible. I think that for Waldburger to improve his chance of winning is not to use his takedowns for submissions but as a means to set up his strikes and also sway the judges should this go to decision. If and when he gets on top, TJ would be wise to not stay there for too long.
Sure, Waldburger is very skilled in the submissions department but I think that if he stays down there too much his chances of falling into into a submission increase exponentially especially if fatigue starts to become a factor. Pyle is very skilled off of his back and has secured submissions from this position against experienced opposition such as Dan Hornbuckle(24-7), Shonie Carter(50-30-7-1),and very long ago(2002) against wrestling standout Jon Fitch(25-6-1-1). Waldburger can get on top as Pyle’s takedown defense isn’t the best(but then again, it doesn’t have to be given his submissions) but he needs to mix things up to win. You can never rule Pyle being knocked out but I think that this is highly unlikely as the only people that have put Pyle away in recent history are heavy hitters like Matt Brown(18-11), Rory Macdonald(15-2), and Jake Ellenberger(29-7)... Waldburger has yet to show the power to put someone like Pyle away.
Ultimately, Waldburger will need to follow a carefully crafted strategy to take the win here. It would also serve Waldburger well to respect Pyle’s power considering he isn’t the most durable of fighter. So, if I haven’t put too fine of a point on this I feel that Pyle should take this fight if Waldburger doesn’t craft a good enough strategy to win. Both of these men are very well rounded but Pyle seems to have an edge in every area while also having a sizeable experience record. I think we could even see Pyle walk away with a KO/TKO victory which would bring him back to the win column after that loss to Matt brown. This is definitely one of the fights I will be looking forward to the most and I hope it doesn’t disappoint.
MMAUG Exclusive
Mousasi vs. Machida breakdown
February 14, 2014 at 12:39am
One of the most exciting things about watching fights play out is watching the clash of two different styles play out right in front of your eyes. In the main event of the evening for UFC Fight Night 36 we see Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida(20-4) fighting Gegard “The Dreamcatcher” Mousasi where we see Mousasi seeking to establish himself amongst the top ten of the 185 pound division. This one is a bit of a head scratcher considering that Mousasi isn’t even in the top fifteen of middleweights, where the UFC has Machida at #4. That being said, if this is the fight I am getting I couldn’t possibly care less about the rankings. In this fight we see two elite level strikers who will engage in a striking chess match that will either be decisively boring or dynamic and enthralling. I am obviously cheering for the latter as nobody likes a boring fight.
Right now, if you were to check with the bookies we would see the line at somewhere within the neighborhood of -226/+210 favoring Machida. When we look at the records we can see why, Machida has fought nothing but the best in the last few years where as Mousasi’s record has big names intermixed a sea of nobody’s but don’t let this fool you too much. I feel that the line should be a little closer but the fact still remains that Mousasi still has yet to prove himself among the upper echelons of the elite as his biggest wins of late are against Ovince St. Preux, Mike Kyle, and Hector Lombard(way back in 2006). Despite not having the same strength of record that Machida does he has shown signs of a champion taking home the championships of Strikeforce light heavyweight title and also holding titles in two divisions with the now non existent DREAM promotion. In terms of style, Mousasi poses some very interesting threats. Sure, Mousasi likes to push forward but he is not your typical bull in a china shop brawler who continues forward no matter what. He presses forward and uses a jab to befuddle his opponents and create valuable counter striking opportunities.
The fact that Mousasi fights this way may prove beneficial against someone like Machida who is quite possibly one of the best counter strikers in the game today. Though Machida is one of the best counter strikers ever, he is often content to allow his opponents to continue to come forward and he capitalizes on mistakes while continuing to stay on the outside. This has cost him decisions before and if he cannot finish the fight, it just might cost him another one. In order to win, I think that Machida needs to come out more aggressively and here is why. Though Mousasi has pro kickboxing experience and amateur boxing success, Machida does have the skill and composure to avoid getting baited or caught with anything major. Another reason that aggression is important is that once Mousasi has you cornered, he can and will batter you with a vicious onslaught of attack. Normally, this wouldn’t be much of concern for Machida but when you factor in Mousasi’s ability to pressure and his high level judo... The threat becomes more real.
The reason I bring up the Judo has a lot to do with how Machida relies on trips from the clinch to down his opponent and re establish a comfortable distance. If Machida cannot prevent from Mousasi from closing the distance it will afford Mousasi many opportunities to land strikes. That all being said, Machida is a master at his craft and has been deft at crafting his strategy to the person in front of him and more often than not he finds success. On paper Machida should win and I think that chances are good we will see this play out. I base this purely on how great Machida has looked against elite competition and how untested Mousasi is within the rankings of the elite.
Ultimately, I really like Mousasi’s chance of playing the upset as he is so good at pressing forward technically. Though Machida is a master counter striker and an elite Karate practitioner we did see him wilt in the face of aggressive pressure in his loss against Shogun Rua and this is a huge question mark. This question mark however is soon balanced by another huge question mark: Is Mousasi good enough to apply and capitalize on such pressure? This is without a doubt the tallest challenge in his career and this fight just might show us how far “The Dreamcatcher” can go. I have always been a Machida fan but I am curious to see what Mousasi can do here.
Craig here from MMA Underground with Up and coming star Andrew McInnis
January 22, 2014 at 5:45pm
Q: Congratulations on your victory last week at MFC 39 "No Remorse" with a beautiful RNC. Can you tell us how you 1st got started in Martial arts?
A: Martial arts kinda grew on me later in life.. At first it was all about pro wrestling. I used to love seeing Hulk Hogan power up and Ultimate Warrior run to the ring like a nut job.. Hulk Hogan got me interested in fighting before I even knew who Royce Gracie was. -It was when Big Nog tapped Bob Sapp that I knew I had to take up Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and martial arts.
Q: How would you describe your style today as?
A: I believe I'm becoming more well rounded every day. BJJ is still my strong suit, but my striking, wrestling and conditioning categories on my power bar have been steadily catching up since 2011. People often give me a hard time because I like to keep it standing, but if I only wanted to play the straight BJJ game, I'd be at a tournament every 2nd weekend instead of taking an MMA fight ever 3-4 months.
Q: What is your current record and can you describe how everything went down at MFC 39?
A: I'm currently 4-1. I lost my first fight to a very tough opponent and didn't taking fighting serious. I was training with some extremely incompetent people and had no place being in a cage, let alone in there against Chad Laprise. I've learned from my mistakes and have jumped to the other side of the training intensity spectrum. Now I got a pissed off Brazilian girlfriend that I barely talked to for 8 weeks to deal with. lol
MFC 39 was a great. The Pavelich family puts on a great show and were a pleasure to work with.. Dan Ring is a very tough guy that had some great movement. He threw from awkward angles and it took me a little longer to adjust than Id like.. Unfortunately I needed to get punted in junk to force me to switch from technician mode to "time to scrap" mode that got me the finish.
Q: I know you cant talk about it, but You tried out for TUF Canada, is that correct?
A: Yeah, I was at the try outs.. I can't really say too much about what happened, but it was a great experience. My teammate and fellow coach at Complete Fitness and Martial Arts Sheldon Westcott got on at 185 lbs. The guy is an absolute monster, so make sure you watch the show!
Q: A while back you suffered a pretty big injury, can you tell us what happened and how you recovered? How did you stay mentally sharp?
A: I completely tore my ACL 3 days before my 2nd fight. I was sweating off weight with a wrestler that I shouldn't have trusted.. The kid had a bit of an ego problem and torqued my knee very badly off a single leg. Id love to get ahold of that fucker again. I was extremely lucky to get taken care of by 3 of the most skilled guys on earth. Dr. Anthony Galea, who has helped many of the best athletes on earth, My surgeon Dr. Marks who works with the Toronto Raptors and Jim from Athletes care. They're a literal all star team of their professions and I wouldn't be able to do what I love without their help. I watched tons of tape while I was recovering. You always have to study to keep up with the fight game now.. The sports so young that its evolving at the same rate as computer software. One week we're on 7.0 and the next we're on 11.0.
Q: I see a lot of fighters struggling with cutting weight. Do you cut a lot, if so what is the process like?
A: I actually missed weight this fight, so Im the last guy to be giving advice. -I cut way too much weight. I was 198 8 weeks out and had an expensive Chinese food habit.. I brought my weight down fairly comfortably, but hit the wall 1.4 lbs off target.. Mostly due to poor time management on my part. Missing weight is the only thing that I really regret about this fight.. Its unprofessional and inexcusable. Giving away 20% of my purse is a huge piss off as well.
Q: You have trained with some of the best in the world such as BJ Penn and Marcelo Garcia. What was that like and how has it helped you?
A: Most guys in Canada don't seek out the best guys in their sport to learn from and to me that's completely retarded. There are guys fighting that have coaches that never won a match or fight in their lives.. I don't understand it. If your coach sucks shit, you're going to suck shit too. Gym's preaching loyalty are the ones trying to cover up their inferior products and unfortunately a lot of people buy into that. Seek the best guys on earth if you're serious about fighting. A good friend of mine, Elliott Bayev from Openmat MMA told that in order to reach your maximum potential you have to ride on the shoulders of giants and the view from Robert Drysdale, Shane Campbell and the rest of the coaching staff at Complete Fitness and Martial arts is looking pretty sweet right now.
Q: Is it true that BJ Penn said your the most flexible guy he's met?
A: Yeah, but that was when I was 20 and weak as hell. I had a great tool kit for BJJ, but when my focus switched to MMA I had to change my body a lot. For every 5 horse power you add 1 flexibility point goes down the drain.. Its inevitable. With the guidance of Shara Vigeant at SVPT Im becoming a better athlete everyday.
Q: Any last word for your fans?
A: Always tell the truth, say your prayers, hold doors, pull out chairs.. Easy on the swears. I'm living proof that dreams come true. I love you and I'm here for you. Well thanks Andrew, I wish you the best of luck and I hope to see you fighting in the UFC soon. All the best, man! Loving the website!
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Trujillo vs Varner breakdown
January 31, 2014 at 12:41am
Man, I really look forward to fights. More so than most, I think I look forward to and crave these fights the way a crackhead looks forward to that next rock. Starting off my night of combat sport debauchery is a delicious nugget of a fight that pits upcoming Abel “Killa” Trujillo (11-5) against lightweight stud Jaime “C-4” Varner(21-8-1-2). One thing that is painfully obvious when we look at the records is a massive experience advantage for Jamie Varner, especially on the big stage. As a WEC champ and longtime 155 contender he is accustomed to fighting under the bright lights and attention that comes with the main card on a pay-per-view. This is an intangible but an important one as the glare of the bright lights has stunned and affected the performances of many fighters and Trujillo has never been on a UFC main card.
Both men are known for their wrestling but in terms of whom has adapted their wrestling better to the MMA game the clear advantage goes to Jamie Varner. Not only is he consistently harder to take down than Trujillo but he is also more active and successful with his takedowns. Though we haven’t seen much from Trujillo, since he has embraced sitting on his punches and throwing more power punches I suspect he is fairly easy to takedown in comparison to the other boxer-wrestlers in this class. Varner is also excellent at mixing in strikes and changing levels in order to make his takedowns less predictable and more effective. Though I like his boxing, I feel that Varner should explore the wrestling based offensive for the win; especially when we look at the 11 submissions that “C-4” holds to his credit and Trujillo’s power.
We did see that in his fight against Nurmagomedov, Trujillo can be taken down and I think that for Trujillo to find success in this fight he needs to realize that there is an extremely high probability that Varner will choose to exploit this perceived hole. What Trujillo will need to do is consider throwing some leg kicks from long range as I feel that this could discourage the takedown if he is fast enough but also reduce mobility which is key in Varner’s game should this thing go to the later rounds. Sure, “Killa” has bricks for hands and throws them with malicious intent and Varner isn’t the hardest guy to hit but Varner has also never been finished and I think is crafty enough to keep himself out of danger. Cardio will also not be an issue for Varner as he is the consummate athlete and I feel that if he really pushes the pace, he can take Trujillo into deeper waters.
The odds have Varner at a slight favorite and I think that this is perfectly justified, in fact it could be argued that it should favor “C-4” more. I understand that Trujillo is coming off of a win over Roger Bowling(11-5) and Marcus Levesseur(22-7) but Bowling has struggled against higher level competition and his last win was against the sleazy and thoroughly unskilled Brandon Saling(8-6) and Levesseur has struggled against top competition. Sure, Varner has also shown that he can be defeated by a wrestling based offensive but though Trujillo is big, he is no Gleison Tibau(28-10) who cuts from as high as 200 pounds to make the lightweight limit.
The question is, which Jamie Varner will show up? If Varner is not on point I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Trujillo stuffing takedowns and battering Varner to a decision nod. Another thing that worries me is Varner’s hands, they have broken on him many times and if this does happen again this can not only severely impair his striking but also his wrestling based offensive as a good grip and hand placement can make the difference in securing the takedown.
So where does all of this leave us? Though I love Varner and hope to see him pull out the victory, if I were betting I would take the dog because there always is that chance. I think this chance is marginal at best though because Varner is probably ready for this one and I feel has more tools to take home the victory. Especially considering the quality of his camp which includes the likes of Benson “Smooth” Henderson(20-3). The fun is in watching and I hope to be smiling at the end of this contest as I see Jamie Varner getting his hand raised.
MMAUG Exclusive
Overeem vs Mir breakdown
January 30, 2014 at 10:15pm
Dana White doesn’t want to confirm or deny if this next fight is indeed a loser leaves town type of deal but chances are good that it is. Maybe not necessarily being cut but all of a sudden “seeing the light” and retiring post loss is a distinct possibility. In this match we have Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem(36-13-1) facing Frank Mir(16-8) at heavyweight(206-265 lbs). Both of these men are similar in height and neither has a significant reach advantage. Both also tend to hover around the heavyweight limit come fight time. Right now, we see odds in the neighborhood of a staggering +300/-320 favoring Overeem and I think that this line is just right as this is just a really bad fight for Frank Mir just due to the amount of times he will need to put himself into some bad positions in order to successfully implement his game. When we factor in the fact that Mir he has been finished in two out of three of his recent fights, via strikes it just seems to solidify things.
In order for Mir to stay conscious he will need to do a few different things. One of the most important things will be to stay out of the clinch, he does poorly against people strong in this area and it showed in losses to Junior Dos Santos, Shane Carwin, and most recently Josh Barnett. Here is where I see a big problem for Mir because in my humble opinion his safest avenue to victory is going to be putting Overeem on his back. Overeem does have solid submissions but Mir’s are better and I think that if Mir can safely get Overeem on his back he stands a chance. The reason this is a problem is that Overeem has outstanding takedown defense and he is skilled at turning these into clinch opportunities which is his specialty as an elite level Muay Thai fighter. If Overeem does get Mir into the clinch I don’t think it looks very good for Mir... Maybe he catches Overeem mid knee or something and takes him down but this isn’t incredibly likely. Mir will also want to be careful if he pursues a trip via a bodylock as this is another opportunity for Overeem to get him into the clinch.
In case I haven’t made it mind numbingly clear; Frank Mir needs to stay out of the clinch. In order to win, Frank Mir will need to stay out of range and find a way to set his takedowns up in a crafty way to keep Overeem guessing. I think Overeem’s path to victory is on the feet, and he needs to dominate early and dictate the pace. He can do this by working his way in with his vicious leg kicks and push Frank Mir against the cage with the type of pressure that has defeated him time and time again. If Overeem can pin Mir against the cage and get him into the clinch this will also be a short night for Mir. He might not even need to get him into the clinch if he can keep Mir close to the cage.I think Mir is very skilled and is one of the best heavyweights to fight in the UFC but he is just too easy to hit and will be giving up some angles due to the fact that he fights in a southpaw stance where Overeem is orthodox. Having porous striking defense is bad in any division but it carries the most liability at heavyweight against guys like “The Demolition Man”
Going into this fight I do not see any intangibles of note. Sure, in the United States we like to cheer USA! USA! USA! when an American fights a foreigner but I think that Overeem’s popularity and name recognition transcends this sort of thing as these chants normally come against heel types or unknowns. Wait, I forgot to take into account Overeem’s ego... He will definitely need to keep that in check. Sure, chances overwhelmingly favor him to win but he still needs to respect that Frank Mir is still a very dangerous fighter. I think that Overeem’s ego was a factor in his losses to Antonio Silva and Travis Browne. Frank Mir is experienced enough to maintain composure in bad situations and turn the tides in his favor. That aside I think we see Overeem finish Mir decisively via strikes in the clinch but of course the fun comes in watching how it plays out.
BC
MMAUG Exclusive
Aldo vs Lamas breakdown
January 30, 2014 at 12:14am
In our first championship fight of the evening we have Featherweight(145 lbs) king Jose “Scarface” Aldo(23-1) defending the strap against Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas(13-2) in what should prove to be an exciting fight. To get off topic for a second, what is also exciting is what looms on the horizon should Aldo win as Dana White has already said that he could give “Scarface” a shot at the lightweight title against Pettis(should he retain it). Should Jose Aldo win on Saturday I like the prospect of a lightweight campaign as he has effectively cleared out the featherweight division and Aldo has to make a hard cut to make the 145 pound limit. Coming into this fight, I feel that Lamas has a lot of momentum defeating the likes of Cub Swanson, Hatsu Hioki, and Erich Kock coming in and a lot of people have taken notice with reason as he is really talented and seems to be coming into his own. This I am sure has boosted his confidence which he will need in this fight.
Momentum and talent aside, I feel that Lamas is walking into a very bad fight and though his recent wins are impressive, lets not pretend that any of the guys he has defeated even hold a candle to Aldo. Am I using the MMA math that I have spoken against in the past? No. Level of competition does however say a lot and Jose Aldo has been successful for a very long time against the absolute best that this division that this division has to offer. This has a lot to do with how well rounded Jose Aldo is but also his speed and strength. He is adept at using combos that hit on varying levels to keep his opponents at bay and often befuddled. If given the opportunity, he can put the lights out on you before you realize your mistake. One thing I absolutely love about Aldo is his leg kicks. He completely dismantled Urijah Faber with these and he has used them time and time again with much success. The reason the leg kicks are so key is because they can impair an opponent’s ability to do so many things: shoot in for a takedown, generating more power on hooks, and slowing the jab down quite a bit.
I don’t want to hyperbolize but is it too wrong to say that Aldo will win this however he wants? Lamas is a stud and could certainly kick my ass despite the fact that he is about half my weight but Aldo is just so damn good. He is a master at dictating distance and staying out of range frustrating his opponents thoroughly. Also, when we get the chance to look at the stats we see that Aldo tends to land more frequently but is also harder to hit. We must also factor in that Aldo is virtually impossible to take down AND extremely accurate with his takedowns. He truly has the ability to decide where this fight will take place and on paper, there isn’t much that Llamas can do to stop Aldo from imposing his will. That being said. I think that Llamas will have to worry about the striking more than the grappling as Jose Aldo does like to keep things standing.
Lamas is going to need to take a page out of Aldo’s book and really focus on those leg kicks. If he can land with consistency, he will be able to reduce Aldo’s explosiveness a bit which will be immensely important as this explosiveness has afforded Jose Aldo several victories, most famously that double knee against Cub Swanson. After that, well he is going to have to find a way to stay in this thing as I do not see him finishing Aldo who has proven to be both elusive and hard to put away. I am thinking that though Aldo is very difficult to takedown, if Lamas can find success here he just might squeeze out a win. Three very big ifs however will determine if he can win on the ground. Can he get Aldo down? How long can he keep him down? If he does find success with the takedown, how long will he be able to sustain it? Sure, Lamas has only been finished twice but I think that this does show that when caught he can be finished and this is something that bodes very well for Aldo especially if Aldo uses his leg kicks to render Lamas more stationary.
In the end, if you are a betting person I would stay the hell away from this fight. Even if you like dogs, I think that there aren’t many avenues that would lead Lamas to victory. Lamas does have a few TKOs to his credit in recent history but these don’t come against anybody particularly durable or skilled on the feet. It is also too expensive to be worth your while to bet on Aldo. Aldo has also put away all challengers very decisively and anyone of these challengers prove a larger challenge than any of Lamas’ recent wins. I am thinking that Aldo takes this thing by a brutal KO if not to a decision nod rife with boat loads of punishment along the way.
BC
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Henderson vs Thomson breakdown
January 24, 2014 at 3:46am
Josh “The Punk” Thomson(20-5-1) vs Benson “Smooth” Henderson(19-3-0) is one of those fights I have been looking forward to for some time. Not really in terms of the title relevance as I think whomever wins is set up to lose to Anthony Pettis but in terms of a fight that promises to be very exciting. Though I think that this will be an exciting fight, I anticipate that we will see Henderson emerge victorious which is why I think this fight won’t affect the title picture at all. Dana White has already said that if Thomson wins he gets a title shot and if not Gilbert Melendez gets the nod. That being said this WILL be close and we cannot count Thomson out especially since he slept Nate Diaz in his last fight... For the first time in Diaz’s career whom if nothing else is durable.
The reason I like Henderson in this one is beyond the MMA math aspect but since I alluded to it I might as well mention it. Benson Henderson defeated Gilbert Melendez and Gilbert Melendez has beaten Thomson two out of three times in their outings. More importantly is the fact that Henderson is simply better in every facet of the game. Ok, great, Henderson got submitted in his last outing and Thomson has more career subs than Henderson but the most significant submission he has is against Pat Healy and before that the last one was in 2007. Henderson has been on the BJJ competition circuit and has shown thorough improvement in this aspect of the game so I do not anticipate any trickery on the side of Thomson... Fluke guillotine choke aside as you can never rule that out with wrestlers of this caliber.
The reason I think that we see “Smooth” pulling this one out has to do largely with the fact that he is decisively more active than Thomson with regard to mixing in takedowns with his striking. This is key as both of these guys are both fairly accurate and also somewhat difficult to hit. The reasons takedowns will be the x factor is that Henderson will attempt more and these will create more opportunities for him to land strikes. Let alone the fact that most judges tend to give heavy credence to takedowns landed in a fight..I think this fight will probably make it to decision where Thomson is consistently beaten to the punch and flustered by a multileveled attack from Henderson. Think takedowns... Tons of them.
In terms of victory for Thomson, I think that Gilbert Melendez said it best when he said that Thomson will need to commit to his strikes more and seek to land more heat. While that sounds fairly pedestrian as that is what most fighters look for that is really his best chance. The problem with that is that Henderson has proven to not only be durable but also quite resilient which is what I feel will allow him to stay in Thomson’s face all evening and keep him off balance. I seriously don’t see Thomson catching Henderson and I also think that Henderson doesn’t have the power to put Thomson away which is why I see the decision running it’s course for Henderson.
Ultimately what we watch these fights for is the true outcome but I feel pretty comfortable in how I see this one going down. If Thomson wants to win this one he will need to put more mustard on those strikes but also ramp up his takedown if for no other reason than that this is how one can sway the judges in their favor. I think takedowns will carry a lot of weight as I do not see one fighter finishing the other and I also anticipate the striking will be somewhat even. The fun will be in seeing how it plays out but if you are a betting man, bet on Henderson.
BC
MMAUG Exclusive
Gonzaga vs Miocic breakdown
January 24, 2014 at 3:46am
Heavyweights are hands down my favorite to watch even though every so often we get a slow paced snoozer but its worth it. The power these men bring into the cage is incomparable and in the only heavyweight fight on the main card we have Stipe Miocic(10-1-0) facing Gabriel Gonzaga(16-7-0). This fight sees Miocic trying to climb up the ladder and establish himself amongst top heavyweights and in this outing he does face a solid challenge in Gabriel Gonzaga. The bookies have this thing at around -219/+192 favoring Miocic and I do not think that this is too far off to be honest. Though Gonzaga has played spoiler several times over in his most recent 3-1 run plowing through Ben Rothwell, Dave Herman, and Shawn Jordan I feel that Miocic has the dangerous combination of athleticism, technique, and power to put “Napao” away.
Though Gonzaga is known on the feet for his power and dangerous muay thai clinch, he is facing a former Golden Gloves champ who has also seen division 1 NCAA wrestling experience so he may very well find himself outclassed. The thing that also makes me nervous since I am a long time Gonzaga fan the fact that he isn’t the most durable of fighter and Miocic has consistently shown devastating power in his hands. While I do not think this is a squash match by any means, I think that in order for Gonzaga to win he needs to respect Miocic’s power and try to limit his mobility as much as possible. This can be done by repeatedly using the leg kick which will prove effective because if Gonzaga finds success on the feet, it won’t take long for Miocic to use his wrestling. After a while this will also make it easier to hit Miocic but also make him more susceptible a clinch offensive which is where Gonzaga can close it out with some knees.
I think that the knockout isn’t entirely out of reach for Gonzaga but I think he is more likely to be on the receiving end of as much as I hate to say it. The reason I think this is that Miocic has power reminiscent of Shane Carwin and Travis Brown but far more technical with the hands. We saw it with Junior Dos Santos where he can be overwhelmed by someone whom is precise, powerful, and technical with the hands. I think where Miocic can win this is by using movement to pop in and out of range and catch Gonzaga as he plods forward intent on destroying Miocic. That is one thing I love and hate about Gonzaga’s offense, he is very aggressive and that is to a fault as he can get baited into getting into brawls he shouldn’t and absorbing strikes he definitely should not.
In this matchup I anticipate a slight crowd advantage for Miocic since he is from nearby Ohio but I don’t think this is something that will really affect Gonzaga who has fought in the US many times where...Well...How do I say this? We chant USA-USA-USA vociferously against foreign fighters(I find this very embarrassing) and I am sure he has experienced this enough to not be phased by being the heel of the evening. I think that this fight will be decided on the feet but I think that if Miocic pursues a ground based offensive, Gonzaga does stand a good chance of catching him with submissions as not only is he a BJJ black belt he has proven more than adept at translating that skill into the realm of MMA and has demonstrated this time and time again. Gonzaga has multiple avenues to win this thing if he goes about this intelligently and doesn’t allow himself to be baited into a brawl.
Ultimately, I think that Gonzaga can be baited into a brawl as old habits die hard and should this play out I see Miocic taking the victory and moving on. Probably by KO. What leaves me holding on to hope that my boy “Napao” will pull this out is his recent resurgence against solid opposition. Just maybe he can play this one just right and make progress towards another title shot. Maybe an old dog can learn some new tricks. Regardless, at the end of the fight we will find out if Miocic is ready to face the upper echelons up the heavyweight division or if he needs to go back to the drawing board.
BC
MMAUG Exclusive
Elkins Vs Stephens breakdown
January 24, 2014 at 3:46am
“Everybody’s got plans, until they get hit.” -Mike Tyson
The more and more I look at this card the happier I get because it is literally packed from top to bottom with excellent fights. In this fight we have Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens(22-9-0) taking on Darren “The Damage” Elkins(17-3-0) at featherweight, both of these men started their UFC careers at lightweight to eventually drop the 10 pounds and find success at featherweight. Right now the bookies have the odds favoring Stephens slightly at somewhere around +120/-130 and I do not think these are too far off but I definitely wouldn’t be afraid to take a take Elkins to win.
Before we go into more detail, let’s go back to why that line isn’t so crazy. At lightweight, Stephens was known for his devastating power on the feet and at 145 pounds his power has seemed to been amplified, especially after seeing that brutal head kick KO over Rony Jason.. The thing is Elkins has proven that he can get finished early in the fight with a flurry of power punches. The most notable example would be when Chad Mendes flattened him 1 minute and 8 seconds in the first round and also earlier in his career when he got put to sleep by journeyman Ted Worthington. The Tyson quote earlier is directed at Darren Elkins directly. I think Elkins can take this fight but it won’t be pretty if he fights smart. I think that though Elkins has shown strength on the feet this is not the fight I would recommend testing the waters on.
I think I have made it immensely clear that I think a fight on the feet favors Stephens because of his power but also his technical ability. For being a power hitter he is highly accurate and uses all facets of the striking game to impose his win and put his opponent to sleep. I also want to stress that he does have solid wrestling and is also a BJJ black belt. I readily admit that I think that Elkins needs to get this fight to the mat quickly to win but he will have to use his striking to set the takedowns up as Stephens is also adept at capitalizing on failed takedowns to inflict large amounts of damage. I think he should also avoid any sort of clinch situation against Stephens as well because I simply feel it isn’t worth the chance of allowing Stephens to get the muay thai clinch in and knee him into oblivion.
The more I think about this and look at it all I am starting to like Stephens even more. However, the longer the fight goes the more I like Elkins as he has proven that he can eventually get and keep down powerful strikers with solid takedown defense. I think a good example of this is his fight against Diego Brandao. If Elkins wants to win this I think he needs to stay out of range for a while popping in and out mixing in strikes and feints. During this time he will need to get the timing of Stephens down pretty quickly and shoot in at an opportune time for the takedown. I think that Elkins realizes this and if he is smart his strategy will be to take Stephens down and keep him there. It won’t be pretty but it will be a win. I think that if Stephens does take this fight, chances are it will be early and brutal especially considering that Elkins is not the greatest at dodging strikes.
Going into Saturday night I do not think that intangibles will prove to be much of a factor for either fighter. The crowd will probably favor Stephens since he is a more established fighter with more name recognition but I do not expect this to affect Elkins much. Elkins has also been in the UFC for a while and is no stranger to fighting under the pressure of the bright lights of the UFC with a legion of rabid fans cheering vociferously around him. I like Elkins to win but I would not be surprised if this one ends early in the first via KO from Stephens.
BC
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Cerrone Vs. Martins breakdown
January 23, 2014 at 12:22am
Come January 25th, we have a hell of a card on our hands. Starting off the main event will be established elite 155 pounder Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone(21-6-1) against up and comer Adriano Martins(25-6-0). Most of you are probably wondering why “Cowboy” is fighting Martins if you aren’t still trying to remember who Martins is. That however does not mean he is a scrub, but this fight is definitely a huge shot for Martins who I am sure is eager to establish himself amongst top lightweights in the division. While not exactly the most recognizable name out there I think he is definitely deserving of the opportunity considering he has done well against steadily improving competition beating Daron Cruickshank and former UFC fighter Jorge Gurgel defeating the former by armbar in round two. Though he is a BJJ black belt, he doesn’t have many wins by submission in MMA competition and I don’t see him having any sort of advantage on the ground considering how slick Cerrone is off of his back and let’s not forget that “Cowboy” has a staggering fourteen submission wins to his credit.
One thing that I think immediately bodes badly for Martins is where the fight starts: On the feet. Though Martins is no slouch on the feet having 11 finishes via strikes to Cerrone’s 2 he is considerably less active than Cerrone on the feet. Sure, one can never rule out that one perfect punch that puts someone to sleep there are two things(at least) that stand in the way of this. One being the fact that though only having a one inch reach advantage, Cerrone is definitely a long fighter(meaning he effectively uses reach and keeps distance when needed) and two is that he has proven to be quite durable. One thing that can help Martins out is that Cerrone can be baited into a brawl and in these situations he does absorb a fair amount of punishment but the big question mark is can he put Cerrone away? Though Martins has put away many people by strikes these are against people whom are virtually nobodies in terms of the upper 155 pounders and we have yet to see him tested against a fighter the caliber of Cerrone. I think him taking Cerrone out by feet is not very likely unless he can recreate that Pettis kick to the body that put Cerrone away.
I would go more into detail but I don’t want you to nod off into Narnia so let’s look at some other things. I think this fight can go to the mat if Martins wants it to go there as Cerrone though good at stuffing the takedown has fallen victim to his fair share of takedowns. The question is does Martins want to take it there? We have already covered that Martins is an advanced BJJ practitioner he has not proven to be as adept as Cerrone in terms of translating this into real results in the MMA game. This is important as Cerrone can get the sub whether on top or on the bottom and can also get back up if needed fairly quickly. The intangibles do slightly favor Cerrone as not only is this Martin’s first time under the glare of UFC lights on the main card but he is also facing a very hungry and motivated Cerrone.
Before this fight Cerrone has mentioned several times how he has regained his motivation and drive due to being broke. This if true is more bad news for Martins as a motivated Cerrone is a dangerous one and I feel that this is truly Cerrone’s fight to lose. I see this going to a punishing decision for where we see Cerrone out striking and controlling his opponent. I think it is very important that Cerrone respects Martins’ power and use leg kicks to keep Martins at bay. The most exciting thing however is watching to see how things play out and I for one will be tuned in as usual.
BC
