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MARQURDT vs SAFFIEDINE - Match up Analysis
This is going to be the classic match-up between the upcoming prospect and the established veteran. In this case, we are not talking about a squash match in the interest of developing said prospect...This is Nate Marquardt we are talking about who sports an amazing 32-10-2 record, which dwarfs that of Saffiedine whom is at a respectable 13-3. One has to question the viability of a Saffiedine in this match-up as when you look at his record, Marquardt is a very tall order. I am not knocking the Team Quest product by any means, but he is simply in too deep on this one. Let’s be real here, he lost to Tyron Woodley which shows he does not posses the elite level wrestling or grappling required to beat Marquardt. Though MMA math doesn’t work one fact remains indisputable: if he had elite level wrestling he would not have lost to Woodley like he did.
On paper the victor in this battle is clear: Marquardt. He simply possesses every advantage in this fight, his grappling is superior(He is the former King of Pancrase after all), his submission ability is obviously better, and while he is no Mike Tyson he has some serious power in his hands. That being said, Saffiedine has only loss via decision so his susceptibility to being finished via submission or knockout has yet to be seen. The key thing here is experience, experience, experience. Marquardt has faced and defeated names such as Dan Miller, Rousimar Palhares, Demian Maia, Martin Kampmann, Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister... I could go on all night. Saffiedine’s biggest test to date was Tyron Woodley whom he lost to(Marquardt destroyed Woodley).
Avenues to Victory
It would be stupid to completely rule off Saffiedine but I simply have a hard time seeing how he wins this fight. Though he trains with an impressive stable of wrestlers at team Quest(Matt Lindland, Dan Henderson, Chael Sonnen) that doesn’t necessarily mean he absorbs their skill via osmosis. Having access to both Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami whom have both defeated Marquardt via decision(using superior wrestling/grappling) can probably prove valuable. Reason being, the only avenue if any is to win this battle with the wrestling: dictating the pace, pressuring Marquardt, and pressing him against the cage... That is the only way I see him winning as Marquardt has only lost by TKO to Anderson Silva and his last submission loss was to Jiu Jitsu ace Ricardo Almeida...recent losses have come via decision to better wrestlers or grapplers and Saffiedine is neither. Marquardt is the epitome of well rounded and will be a perennial elite in any division he competes in. Welterweight has proven to be his recent home where is power, explosiveness, and takedown defense have gotten only stronger considering it is still a mystery as to how this behemoth made middleweight(well not really but that is speculation). I fully expect Marquardt to beat Saffiedine and move on to the upper echelons of the welterweight division in the UFC. As long as Marquardt can keep moving forward I can very easily see him in Dana White’s proverbial “mix” and I think at Welterweight he could prove a very stiff challenge to the seemingly unbeatable GSP.
MMAUG Fight Analysis
GONZAGA vs ROTHWELL - Match up Analysis
Do I have to pick a winner on this one? F*ck, that’s right I am writing a pre fight analysis so I do have to pick one. Well, I’m not doing that quite yet so take a walk with me while I mull over the merits of this match. Usual full disclosure, the bookies have this one at an average of +110 for Rothwell and -111 for Gonzaga. I think this is more of a toss up to be honest but let’s take a look at these guys and see where they stand. In terms of experience, Rothwell has the edge as he has double the amount of fights that Gonzaga. In many cases(where the inexperienced is more talented) this can prove to be minutiae but I think that in this fight it may prove more of a factor as Rothwell has twice as many fights as Gonzaga.
As far as grappling and submissions is concerned it is obvious that Gonzaga has the edge as the majority of his wins come by submission even though Rothwell has a significant amount of submission finishes I doubt he has what it takes to submit someone whom has never been submitted especially when you consider he has fought Fabricio Werdum twice. I think he also has the slight edge in striking having a Muay Thai background. I don’t think the edge exists solely because he practices Muay Thai but because his style is kryptonite to one of Rothwell’s bad habit of not only leaving his lead leg out really far but he also has a tendency to drag it when moving laterally or backwards.
This tendency is bad news for two reasons: the obvious one is leg kicks as MT is very leg kick intensive but also, when he get’s he loses balance somewhat easily. Losing balance can put you in a world of sh*t against someone like Gonzaga as once he gets on top he is going for the submission and he is VERY good at getting that submission. Though Rothwell has only lost by submission only once, I highly doubt he is good enough off his back to stop Gonzaga from having his way with him. The x-factor here is durability. Rothwell is more durable than Gonzaga and this is evident in the fact that all but one of Gonzaga’s career losses have come by some form of KO/TKO. I also don’t like Gonzaga’s chances if this fight goes to decision.The durability of Rothwell has foiled Brendan Schaub in recent history.
Let’s look at Rothwell though. Not only does he possess uncanny durability but he also has the ability to generate some serious power from unorthodox positions that most cannot find KO power from. Look at what he did to Brendan Schaub, he knocked him out while moving backwards and it was absolutely beautiful. Not many whom are not named Chuck Liddell or Anderson Silva have proved to have this trait. This comes in handy when someone has him on the ropes as bloodlust proves to leave most susceptible to that one finishing punch. This may help him against an extremely aggressive Gonzaga. Let’s also remember that Gonzaga while tough has proven susceptible to powerful strikers. So if Rothwell wins this one, I see it happening via decision or TKO.
Gonzaga I think overall has the better odds overall. Though Rothwell has a healthy advantage in the durability department there are simply too many ways for him to lose this fight. I think that Gonzaga takes it by submission after a knockdown. I think Gonzaga needs to attack that lead leg early and constantly as not only is it easy to hit but a weakened lead leg will also facilitate a knock down. I don’t feel confident on this one to be perfectly forthcoming and will be watching this fight on the edge of my seat for sure.
MMAUG Fight Analysis
RAMPAGE vs TEIXEIRA - Fight Analysis
Let’s rewind back to 2003, right when MMA finally started to gain a larger following, I was in the thick of the Pride glory days and loved every second of it. One name immediately comes to mind for me and this name is Rampage Jackson. He was just so savage, so brutal with his attack it made you legitimately wonder if his opponent was dead once the torrent of violence had ran it’s course. That slam against Arona? Holy sh*t, that should literally be the definition for violence. He would spike opponents into the canvas, strike with ill regard for his opponents safety and always seemed to result in a violent finish. 2003 however, is 10 years ago, and many things have changed since then. Pride has ceased to exist and frankly, Rampage has seemed to devolve running 6-4 in his last 10 contests.
Maybe I am wrong, maybe it isn’t that Rampage has devolved and more like the MMA landscape has continued to evolve while he hasn’t. What is respectable however, is he has remained a top 10 fixture despite this, so he is extremely talented and a legitimate threat to anyone he fights. In front of him this Saturday, is going to be the surging Glover Teixeira whom proves to be a formidable challenge. Glover is currently at 19-2 career with an astonishing 15 win streak. He is also extremely well rounded showing excellent submission prowess, while also having blistering striking to boot. Did you see the Maldonado fight? That sh*t was f*cked up man, savage violence that made the doctor stop the damn thing. We haven’t seen a similar showing from Jackson in some time.
So, while we already know what Rampage has accomplished being a UFC champ before getting dicked out of the title by judges in the Forrest Griffin fight. That fight however, showed one thing, Rampage not only doesn’t check leg kicks but also plants his lead leg making leg kicks not only effective but easy to land and the visible damage from these are arguably what caused the judges to give the nod to Griffin. In recent history Rampage has shown susceptibility to anything that isn’t a stand and bang approach. Key examples are his losses to Evans, Bader, and Griffin. Elusiveness is going to be key for Glover in this one as when you pop in and out of range and pepper him with strikes he tends to become frustrated and easier to hit. With the devastating power Glover has this can be a very big problem for Rampage. Jackson has excellent takedown defense but has proven to be susceptible to submissions which will also be a problem IF Glover gets him down.
If nothing else, this is Rampage’s kind of fight, his opponent probably can’t or won’t take him down and has shown a penchant for striking. That being said, I think Rampage’s only avenue to victory is going to be the knockout. If he wins, it will be this way but I am taking Teixeira to win this one. I think he will batter Rampage from start to finish utilizing leg kicks to severely impair the mobility of Jackson, but also diminishing his capacity to throw hard strikes. From then on, it will be a very long night for Jackson whom may see his first KO loss in ages. I think if anyone is capable of this it is Teixeira and if he can take Rampage’s legs from him, he may get the KO... He does have the power.
So there it is, I am going with Teixeira on this one and I don’t feel one bit of worry over this choice. Though there is always a chance of a KO when dealing with Rampage I think Teixeira will stay out of range for a little to soften up that lead leg and will press from there. I still want Rampage to win though, he is still one of my favorite fighters and can be exciting to watch. I am hoping he will decide to check leg kicks, utilize better head movement, and be less plodding but I am prepared for disappointment. This is almost like high school.
MMAUG Fight Analysis
DODSON vs JOHNSON - Fight Analysis
If we were solely going off of what bookies say, it would go without saying that the pick would be Demetrious Johnson at as high as -250 and John Dodson as low as +196. I generally go for the underdogs when I bet, and this fight has upset written all over it but, let’s kick the tires and look at the fight more in depth before reaching conclusions. Reason being, Dodson has almost equal speed to that of DJ, but also possesses devastating knockout power at 135, so now that 125 is his new home, I think that power will be amplified. The question is, how long can he sustain this power? Though his cardio is solid, he has shown in the Runez fight a tendency to wane in the 4-5th stanza. That being said, that was ‘09 and we cannot simply base much off of that fight considering he hasn’t lost since.that fight back in 2009 and it was by split decision.
I think what is going to be of most importance in this scrap is not only whether or not Dodson can stop the takedown but also the ability of Dodson to adjust to the frequent change in levels that is a staple of Johnson’s game. The reason this is so important, is that if Dodson is in constant fear of the takedown or unable to adjust to the constant change in levels, this will seriously impair his ability to throw powerstrikes. DJ also possesses excellent head movement which would further solidify his chances of victory if the scenario I allude to above does indeed take place. I think that Johnson can win this IF he changes levels frequently, goes for the takedown, and pops in and out of range to avoid the power of Dodson.
If Dodson does indeed take this fight, I see him taking it by KO/TKO. What he will need to do here, is walk Johnson down, use his takedown defense, explosive power, and speed to rally for the TKO/KO finish. This is why I would have a hard time picking Dodson to win this fight. Though I think JD is slightly faster than Johnson, DJ has shown that he is excellent at staying out of range and avoiding a whole lot of punishment. As I write about it though, I think I’m undervaluing Dodson’s ability to adjust to frequent level change as he hasn’t even been taken down in his last 4 outings while still scoring two finishes.
True, JD may only need one punch, I don’t see him landing it as Johnson has evaded the power striking of notables Ian McCall, Miguel Torres, and Damacio Page. Ok, yeah, great, Johnson lost to Dominick Cruz, but Dodson tends to not fight Cruz’s type of fight nor is he as fast as Cruz. Also, key to note that in the evasiveness I allude to in the previous paragraph DJ has shown excellent cagemanship in not allowing his opponents to cut the cage off which would facilitate landing a lot of damaging strikes.
So who do I pick? F*ck, I was hoping you weren’t going to ask me that. If I had my druthers I would mark this as a toss up. But, where are the balls in that? I’m hopping on the Johnson train to take this fight by decision. That being said, this is an EXCELLENT opportunity if you like the underdogs like I do when it comes to wagering. Though I am picking Johnson, let me disclose that I am betting on Dodson and would love to be wrong on this. So, the smart call is Johnson but if you like some risk in your life, toss a few dollars on Dodson and who knows... Maybe I will get this one wrong and you will profit. We will find this out in due time as the fight takes place this Saturday.
MMAUG Fight Analysis
CERRONE vs PETTIS - Fight Analysis
This is a fight I have been anticipating for a very, very long time. When I was a sperm cell floating around in my dad’s nads I was looking forward to this thing... That is how long I have been looking forward to this one. Both of these guys are just so damn exciting, I mean Cerrone is the consummate finisher, as is Pettis... So more likely than not someone is getting finished. What’s more is that with both of them having a high amount of submissions and KO/TKOs who knows where it will end. I am going with the fight ending on the feet as recently both of these guys have shown a preference for staying upright..
I am really liking Pettis for this one but there is also one factor worth noting:ring rust.Pettis hasn’t fought in just under a year while Cerrone has fought twice since. Activity in this sport is key, as it commands fighters whom are in or hope to be in the top 10 to focus on differing facets from fight to fight which inherently leads to evolution and diversity. Do I think it will be a huge factor? Not quite, Pettis is young and enjoys the tutelage of reputable MMA trainer and kickboxer Duke Roufus and I am sure he has been mixing things up in training to keep him fresh.
Why do I like Pettis for this fight? His crafty, explosive striking. I mean really, who would think to bounce off of the cage to kick someone in the face? That was absolutely amazing considering whom he hit with it... Current UFC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson whom has proven fairly elusive against most strikes, let alone unorthodox ones. Also, I think he holds a significant speed advantage here. The accuracy is almost even amongst these two as well as is the takedown defense.
This is such a tough fight to call, hence why I have been looking forward to it for so long. Both Cerrone and Pettis are the definition of well rounded and both come from excellent camps in Jackson’s MMA and Duke Roufus MMA respectively. Though Cerrone is a threat, he showed in his loss that he has difficulty in stopping strikes that come from odd angles as Nate Diaz uses the same multilateral style that his brother Nick uses. Pettis, despite his youth has shown amazing craftiness and isn’t afraid to use unorthodox angles to inflict damage.
In closing, if I haven’t made it abundantly clear enough for you: I pick Pettis, I simply think he is better than Cerrone in every facet and that this is his fight to lose. Cerrone is certainly a stud and will always remain a perennial top 5 fighter, I think that Pettis has his number here and will probably win a competitive but decisive victory over Cerrone. As for me, I am off to finish that beer that has been talking sh*t about me...We will see how accurate I am in one more day.
BELFORT vs BISPING - Match up Analysis
I will offer full disclosure as usual. I want Belfort to destroy Bisping on a scale so grand that it would make Dexter blush. I just hate Michael Bisping, what a bloated cunt he is, I mean really. I still reminisce at least once a day on how beautiful it was when Dan Henderson knocked this fool’s block off. That being said, I really like Bisping to win this one... That really hurt. I need to lay down for a minute... Ok, I’m back now; though Bisping isn’t my pick this sentiment puts me squarely at odds with the bookies(some have Bisping as +110 to Belfort’s -140) but I think that Bisping is seriously undervalued here. Though Bisping is a bit of a tosser, he is still very talented and had been a perennial top 10 middleweight for a reason. Personality aside, Bisping is an absolute stud. Don’t misunderstand me though, so is Belfort.
This is how I envisage the fight going down(I would love to be wrong) Belfort comes out guns blazing on a quest to knock Bispings head onto the first fight to Manchester. This however, plays very nicely into Bispings style as he is not only an accurate, volume striker he is also excellent at utilizing his length and crafty striking to stay on the outside. The first round will consist of Bisping staying the f*ck out of Belfort’s way...At least he would be smart to do that. The thing is, that Bisping does enjoy a height advantage of about 2” so this can prove to help him but I don’t think it will prove to be a big factor as Belfort has fought and won against many whom share the same advantage. So, long story short, Bisping’s path to victory is to stay on the outside and fluster Belfort with a torrent of counters. If Bisping wins this thing, it will be by decision but what is of note is that Bisping did drop a decision to a fading Wanderlei Silva whom is almost a clone of Belfort.
So let’s look at how Belfort can win this thing. Belfort needs to win this by KO or Submission however the latter is less likely than the former as I really don’t see this happening and if it does I just may find myself eating my own underwear. Where Belfort shines is not only his savage power but his blistering hand speed. He also possesses solid fundamentals with regards to his boxing but I think Bisping is better here. This is what I think will prove to be interesting, his style is faster and more crisp than that of Dan Henderson and if he can close the distance he will pose a huge problem for Bisping. Bisping was KO’d by that powerful right of Henderson but that was also because he foolishly kept circling towards Henderson’s power hand. Though Henderson is a slower, more plodding fighter me thinks he has since corrected this mistake to some degree as it would be a fatal error to not correct it.. That fight was a long time ago however, and I think for Belfort to be successful he needs to either take this thing to the ground or close the distance.
Both pugilists provide interesting challenges to the other upon analysis of their most recent records. Virtually all of Belfort’s most recent KO/TKO victories have come against guys who move forward and tend to not stay on the outside. Where it is funky for Bisping is that in recent history he has not fought a fighter who is as aggressive as Belfort or as skilled as Belfort in the striking department nor do they possess the grappling/submission acumen that Belfort has. If this fight goes to the floor, Bisping is f*cked. While he is a functional grapper, this will simply not do against an ADCC bronze medalist. Let’s also throw in this intangible: this fight is happening in Brazil. If you have not yet seen a card that takes place in Brazil, the crowd is so loud, I mean VERY loud, louder than anything I have ever heard in MMA and they always root for the Brazilian. I think this may play a factor albeit small as Bisping is used to playing the heel.
Ok, I have changed my mind. Belfort should win this thing. Bisping does not possess the KO power to finish Belfort on the feet and Belfort may realize this and eat a few punches before destroying Bisping. Though his striking defense is porous, against Bisping this really doesn’t matter. Bisping can’t knock this guy out, I mean his last KOs were over 8 years ago against unknowns. I think that Belfort’s fight IQ will make him take Bisping down if the striking isn’t going well. Let’s also remember that every time Bisping cracks the top 5 he get’s wrecked and Belfort is definitely in the top 5 if not scratching the outside of it. This may affect his psychology more so than his brusque, garrulous persona will ever admit. So, in short I pick Belfort but wouldn’t count Bisping out either. We shall see come this Saturday my kiddies.
Aldo vs. Edgar
In the fight of the evening we have the former UFC Lightweight champ Frankie Edgar trying to wrest the Featherweight crown from the death grip that Featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo has on it. I think Aldo is going to win this one but I am really liking Frankie on this one. He is quick, light on his feet and excellent at going in and out of range at will. Edgar is also lightning fast and I think he is as close to as fast as Aldo as anyone can hope to get. The other quality that Edgar has is his inordinate ability to sustain vast amounts of punishment and recover as if nothing has happened. This has to be attributed to his top notch cardio but once again his speed. He does get caught from time to time but he is excellent at getting out of harms way once things start to get thick.
The reason I have Aldo as the favorite here is his uncanny ability to bait his opponents into situations in which he follows up with a vicious counter. We see this time and time again in outings against Mike Brown, Manvel Gamburyan, and Mark Hominick. The reason I think this is important is because Frankie is a multi leveled, fast striker that will often shoot in for the takedown after setting it up with some strikes. The fact that he sets up his takedowns is extremely important, but with Aldo being so fast, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make Frankie eat some knees and uppercuts on the way in. This is where it can get ugly real quick against Jose Aldo, if he hurts Frankie he will pursue him with savage aggression until he puts Edgar to sleep.
I think that Edgar getting caught with a counter is a more likely scenario than him getting leg kicked to death ala Urijah Faber.The reason I say this is that Edgar is better at popping in and out of range and he also in the past has shown the ability to check the leg kicks. This is key if you are looking to retain mobility against Aldo. The way he throws his leg kicks in a downward chopping motion is absolute hell on your Medial Collateral Ligaments(MCL) as well as your Lateral Collateral Ligaments(LCL) and can cause quick swelling of these ligaments. The reason this is of note is as the ligaments swell, agility and rapid lateral movement are retarded and this can open you up for a world of shit when Aldo is so talented at throwing rapid uppercuts, knees, and kicks.
I’m sure you are getting tired of... You guessed it, intangibles!! It is no secret that Aldo cuts a gang of weight to make the 145 pound water mark and this is something Frankie Edgar doesn’t lose a whole lot of sleep about. He has always been a small Lightweight and didn’t cut much if any weight to make 155, in fact that is pretty much his walking around weight. So, in this one Frankie won’t be giving up too much size which is important when facing a killer like Jose “Scarface” Aldo. Though since the video linked to above Aldo has gotten better at making the cut, it is still of note as making a cut like this does take a lot out of a fighter. Psychology and confidence is also of note here and I would give that advantage to Frankie. Aldo is supremely confident but not so much as to overlook his opponent with this opponent as Frankie is the perennial upset and almost always the underdog in any fight he goes into. Frankie is used to being the underdog so he won’t lose much sleep over this and is also hungry for some UFC gold and hunger can be a hell of a force to reckon with.
How will it go? I want Frankie Edgar to win but I don’t see it. I think he will avoid the leg kicks but I think we will see Aldo counter him time and time again to win a unanimous decision. Though Aldo is the consummate finisher and has the potential to put Frankie to sleep I don’t see this happening either as Frankie is not only fast but extremely durable. I think this fight will go to a very close decision, most likely of the split variety. I say this because I don’t see Edgar being very successful as far as the takedown and I think he will absorb a lot of punishment if he continues to shoot in for the takedown.
If this stays on the feet of Edgar’s accord, I like his chances a lot more in this scenario as his boxing is crisp, fluid, and combination heavy which could lead him to outpoint Aldo. I don’t think he will sleep him like he did to Gray Maynard but I really like Edgar’s chances in this scenario. Reason being, Aldo’s striking really shines in the context of luring opponents into a counter or at close proximity(facilitated by his frequent use of a multileveled combination) before popping back out of range. When the fight happens in mid to long range, he tends to telegraph a lot of his attacks and can be easier to hit at this range. So we shall see, though lately I have been in the business of picking winners, I wouldn’t feel comfortable picking Edgar or Aldo in this one... They are both too damn good to confidently rule out.
Rashad Evans vs Antonio Nogueira
In a sport where one punch can change who gets their hand raised at the end of the contest, I am often reluctant to say that someone doesn’t stand a chance of winning, but in this match up it is almost safe to say that Nogueira has a very slim chance of winning this one. I’ll put it this way, I would sooner bet that an unattended car with the keys in the ignition idling in the middle of the street stands a better chance of not being stolen than Nogueira winning this one. I don’t want to take too much away from the guy but in recent history he hasn’t looked too strong against this new crop of MMA fighters: especially against the wrestlers.
What is a key factor here is that Rashad Evans has some of the best wrestling adapted for MMA and he used these skills to thoroughly trounce the surging Phil Davis where Nogueira floundered in his outing against Phil Davis. I must announce that I am not using MMA math here(which is flawed, stats simply aren’t as telling in this sport)but we are looking at the wrestling here. If Nogueira had no answer for the wrestling of Phil Davis(he is a better pure wrestler than Evans, but isn’t as well adapted for MMA) he will have a very difficult time stopping Evans from pressing him against the cage or scoring the takedown at will. The use of the wrestling has evolved in Evans; Initially it was his primary weapon, then as a back up for his crisp and powerful striking(pre Machida), and finally now he uses it as a supplement to his striking.
If we are talking pure boxing here, I have to give the slight edge to Nogueira here, as well as in the submissions department. That being said, this isn’t boxing and this isn’t Jiu Jitsu only. In the context of an MMA fight, Rashad “Suga” Evans has all the tools to stifle all of these advantages these advantages. In recent outings(Rampage, Davis, Silva) Evans has showed that he can close the distance and negate striking and wrestling advantages at will. He even used this to some degree to prevent being KO’d by the very dangerous and explosive Jon Jones. While Nogueira has excellent striking he has nothing to offer to stop Rashad from closing the distance. This was painfully obvious in his loss to Phil Davis and Ryan Bader but also in his “win”(Brilz got fucked) over Jason Brilz.
So, where can Nogueira win this? I am thinking that if he does win this it will be on the floor after a silly mistake. On the feet, I think he could but he does give up some speed and power to Rashad. I also don’t think he is good enough at creating angles and countering on the feet to catch Evans like Machida did. As for the submission possibility, I don’t think Evans will leave too many openings as he hasn’t in the past nor will he keep Nogueira down for long. I think Evans will use his wrestling to keep Nogueira guessing and will pick him apart on the feet en route to a decision victory. There is a chance that Evans will KO Nogueira but I don’t see it. Rashad doesn’t plant his feet and throw the heat like he used to before Machida separated him from consciousness.
So, what about the intangibles? I don’t think there are too many here to matter... At least none that are obvious. Both come from cohesive, talent rich camps, both are in neutral territory, and octagon jitters shouldn’t be a factor here either. I shouldn’t have to say this again, but your English teacher always insists that you are as clear as possible. So, let me say this again. Evans will win this fight and there isn’t much Nogueira can do to stop about it. As always though, the fun is in watching it this Saturday and seeing how it pans out.
Overreem Vs Silva
-400 to +300. Yup, it’s that bad according to the bookies. I love betting on underdogs but I also don’t like throwing good money after bad. This is the line on Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem Vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. I hate to say it as I am a Bigfoot fan, I loved seeing him beat Emelianenko, Kyle, and most recently Brown but this line couldn’t be more appropriate. Sure, he has some durability but I think Overeem will quickly deplete said durability. One might think initially that Silva has better submissions but this would be a misnomer. Not only does Overeem has four times as many submission wins to his credit than Silva but all of these submission wins came against stiffer competition.
So what about the striking? Are you fucking kidding me? Overeem wins this category soundly as not only a K-1 champ, Strikeforce Heavyweight champ, but also having 15 TKO/KO wins during the tenure of his MMA career. I readily concede that Overeem in the past has shown that he doesn’t react very well to hard hits or sustained striking pressure I do not think that Silva has the tools to bring this to light in this fight. He simplys is too plodding in his attack and doesn’t possess the technique that “Shogun” Rua, Antonio Nogueira, or Sergei Kharitonov used to expose this flaw.
This is just bad, I mean it is the definition of a tune up fight. If this term were ever to appear in any sort of dictionary this match should be the definition. I know I am writing off Silva here but he is outclassed in every category. He is too slow on the feet and will not catch Overeem, at least I don’t think so. He faced similar odds in his scrap against Emelianenko and triumphed and did the same against Travis Browne. Though he has a high propensity to succeed as an underdog, I don’t think this will happen here. Me thinks that Overeem wins this one via savage TKO/KO finish...I normally hate to call rounds but I feel safe saying this one will end in the opening stanza. He will use his superior speed and power to capitalize on every opening and may even go to the clinch to put the last nail in the coffin.
So what about the intangibles? I think in this one they don’t make too much of a difference but I think that the motivation Overeem has to prove his standing post one year suspension. I think this may be the only intangible of note here. I still look forward to this fight almost as much as I looked forward to my first time getting laid. Maybe, I will be wrong here but I doubt it. I am almost willing to say that if Silva wins this one, I will eat my laptop... Almost. Anything can happen and I am not eating this laptop. Farewell my kiddies, we are only one day away from the fight and I am beyond stoked.
Fitch Vs. Maia
This is going to be a very interesting fight. On the surface it appears to be another case of wrestling Vs. a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace and in a lot of respects it is. Where it gets interesting however is that both fighters are in the middle of trying to reinvent themselves and become more well rounded. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both fighters trying to test the waters on the feet but I don’t think this would last very long should the striking develop into a lopsided affair... Especially if Fitch is on the losing edge. I would score this fight as a toss up but I would give the edge to Fitch. The asterisk here, is that Maia is by far the most skilled submission fighter he has ever met, and if he returns to a more grinding, smothering style he does run the risk of giving Maia plenty of openings.
So yeah, wrestler against BJJ ace does present some risk to the wrestler but in this instance I really don’t see this making much of a difference. The reason that I say this is that Maia has been soundly stuffed by Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz whom are both equally strong wrestlers if not better than Fitch. So, as much as I hate to say it, Fitch’s avenue to victory is going to be to hold Maia down and pound him like a two dollar hooker. On the feet, I would give the edge to Maia as he has put a lot of effort into improving his stand up and has looked great on the feet. This advantage can and will be quickly snuffed out by a takedown from Fitch. Maia’s striking has improved leaps and bounds since Silva eviscerated him but since then he has not developed one punch KO power like Hendricks does so I find it crazy to think that out of nowhere he is going to develop KO power and send Fitch to sleep.
So, as always let’s look at some intangibles here. I think the intangibles matter from fight to fight and in a lot of instances can make the difference between victory in defeat. If we are talking purely in terms of intangibles I think the edge goes to Maia. Jon Fitch has virtually no KO power and if he forgets his roots, he will be in a world of shit. If he does not utilize the takedown to go for the win it will be a very long and painful night for Fitch. I say this because Fitch still has basic striking and would get picked apart by Maia in a striking match. I think that the concerns I express here are unfounded though as in 10+ years of fighting, I don’t think Fitch is going to forget where his roots are.
By now, it should be pretty obvious as to whom I am picking and who you should pick if you have action on this. Jon Fitch. He will win this fight by unanimous decision. If the fight starts going south on the feet for Fitch he can and will take Maia down. Maia simply doesn’t have the takedown defense to stop it and Fitch has fought plenty of BJJ studs and will be fully aware of what mistakes to avoid to keep from being submitted by Maia. As always though, Maia still presents a huge threat and not forget that this is MMA and sometimes all it takes to change the tide of victory is one punch, or one silly mistake.
Benavidez vs Mccall
This is a showdown between two sharks in a very shallow pond. The flyweight division is now the thinnest division within the ranks but is developing some depth and these two fighters are at the top of the proverbial pond. In Ian “uncle creepy” McCall you have the former Tachi Palace Fights flyweight champ and a top flight bantamweight before making the switch to flyweight. That being said, Benavidez is also no stranger to the top echelons of this division as he also has fought for the UFC flyweight strap(also, in a losing effort to Demetrious Johnson), The WEC bantamweight strap, and like McCall has always been at the top of his division. Both have made a successful transition to flyweight but I think that Benavidez has a slight edge on this one.
I like uncle creepy, I really do and want him to win but I don’t think he has much to offer Benavidez in this one. Though he is extremely well rounded possessing excellent striking, wrestling, and submissions, I think Benavidez is better in the wrestling department which can have a huge effect on the outcome of this one. In high school Benavidez earned two state wrestling titles which is no easy feat. Benavidez’s wrestling has strengthened being in the Alpha Male camp whom has a stable of top flight wrestlers such as Urijah Faber, Chad Mendes, and Danny Castillo to name a few. His wrestling has been a key asset in befuddling competitors by switching levels and using it to finish on the ground whether by TKO or submission. The interesting factor here, is that in his last 6 outings Ian McCall has a takedown defense rate of 82%, and this includes two fights against Demetrious Johnson, whom utilizes a very similar game plan to Benavidez. He is also great at scrambling out from bottom position and also avoiding submissions. I think this fight will end in a decision.
This fight more likely than not will take place on the feet, though I think the anticipation of the takedown is going to inhibit the ability of McCall to fire off any serious power. To counter this though, McCall hasn’t been afraid to fire off serious leg kicks in the past and I think that will limit Benavidez’s ability to shoot for the takedown(to a small degree) but in sufficient volume will limit the mobility of Benavidez. Mobility has been another key asset for Benavidez so for McCall to take this away from Benavidez would be a huge leg up. The speed is about even, as is the cardio so I expect this to be a hotly contested barnburner from start to finish.
Let’s also look at some intangibles here. One thing is that McCall is going through a rough patch in his personal life as he is staring down a pending divorce and has stated recently things have been tough lately, he also looked very unkempt in this interview so this worries me. Is his head really in the game? In addition to this divorce issue, he recently fended off some legal trouble that resulted in incarceration for several days which must be a huge distraction. On the surface it appears that Benavidez hasn’t had such distraction. So while I do think that uncle creepy does have the skill set to defeat Benavidez, I am thinking that more experience with better competition and no distractions will lead Benavidez to a decision victory. Fuck it though, I would love to be wrong here.
Lawler vs Koscheck
Another fight we have on this ridiculously stacked card features the return of Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler vs Josh Koscheck. This is a ridiculously tall order for Lawler and frankly befuddles me considering how much Dana White has shown his appreciation for “Ruthless” in the past. It also has me wondering why the fuck Lawler would pick such a stud for his Welterweight return. Sure, Lawler is 5 years Junior to Koscheck but that doesn’t really matter here as Lawler has more mileage than a city bus. So, I guess I like Koscheck for the win but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Lawler won this one.
I guess we will get started with why this is a tall order for Lawler and proceed from this point. Let’s start with the glaringly obvious, Lawler hasn’t fought at Welterweight since 2004 which is a long time ago. Shit, I was carrying a tuba and getting laid left and right when he last fought Welterweight and that was ages ago. So can he make the weight cut? Yes, he is a professional but against someone whom is just over 1 for 2 regarding takedowns will drain his gas tank.. On the feet, it is my opinion that it is Lawler’s fight to lose. I have serious doubts seeing how Koscheck can take this fight on the feet... I mean look at that telegraphed overhand right; Helen Keller could see that one coming and he is also very open when he throws this strike. This is precisely why he will win. I say this because he will get hit in these situations and re evaluate everything.
Sure, Koscheck has shown a penchant for testing his stand-up abilities in recent history but, he has also shown that when he is on the losing end of a striking pursuit he will attempt to revert back to his bread and butter: his wrestling. Though Lawler is thoroughly proficient at stuffing takedowns he has yet to face a wrestler as skilled as Koscheck. I seriously think that his only way of winning this contest is by violent KO but I must temper this hope with the fact that this scenario is entirely up to Koscheck.
I don’t foresee Koscheck being so stupid on this one. Koscheck has never shown notably poor fight IQ in the past and I think that will serve him well here. Sure, Koscheck will probably be stubborn at first and attempt to throw hands with Lawler but all it will take is a few doses of pain before Koscheck abandons this strategy and takes Lawler down. I don’t think Lawler will absorb much punishment off of his back, but being in that position frequently can and will cost him here. I take Koscheck via Unanimous decision.
Johnson vs Schaub
UFC 157 approaches in a mere 3 days and I have been looking forward to the cornucopia of violence that this card will bring. Key in my excitement for this card is the banger that is going down between Lavar “Big” Johnson and Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub. This one has the making of KO of the night and looking at the past I think that poor Brendan is going to be at the receiving end of the accolade. When you look at Johnson’s recent losses, it is obvious that taking him to the ground is going to be the path of least resistance. I do not think Schaub goes this route, he should but he won’t. He has no submission victories to his credit, nor does he utilize the takedown much at all.
So, why am I so confident in Johnson? Let’s take a look at Schaub’s KO losses. Disclaimer: this is not MMA math and if you accuse me of such an atrocity go fuck yourself. I am getting carried away here. So, he has been KO’s by the likes of Roy Nelson, “Minotauro” Nogueira, and Ben Rothwell. Why does this matter? These guys aren’t exactly lightning fast with the strikes(one is hardly known for his KO power), nor are they the most technical strikers ever...But for the most part, they hit hard as fuck This description fits Lavar to the T and I have a hard time seeing Schaub winning this thing. Even if Schaub does go smart and try to take him down, Johnson is fairly difficult to get to the mat.
As I mention a bit earlier, “The Hybrid” should get this thing to the floor immediately. I’ll say this again he should get this on the floor immediately. Any prolonged combat of the upright variety will end with Schaub on his back this flashlights in his face. In all of his knockout losses, “ The Hybrid” proves susceptible to ating power strikes and this is a mistake that has cost him time and time again. Not only when he is being pursued but also when he is the aggressor, I mean look at what Ben Rothwell did to him. That shit was fucked up.
So how do I see it going? Savage KO, one that will leave us all cringing and concerned for Schaub’s life Ala the most recent stanza in the Pacquaio Vs. Marquez mix up. Schaub has some great striking and unparalleled agility for his weight class which isn’t surprising considering his NFL background. The thing is not only is Johnson strong, but he is fairly quick and can put the lights out quick... He also has solid clinch game should Schaub try to close the distance. For all of his talent, Schaub has a glass chin and has proven unable to last long against people like Lavar. I am no fucking psychic so the real fun comes in watching this Saturday.... I am beyond excited
Man this is a bad fight for Marquardt. Five years ago I would love Marquardt to win this thing but considering his performance against Tarec Saffiedine I don’t think he will fare too well here. Sure, he has always been gigantic and powerful at middleweight and this has only grown in his capacity as welterweight. My concern is that Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger is simply too fast for him and there isn’t much that Marquardt can do to stop the takedown which is a staple in Ellenberger’s games. I think there is always a threat that Marquardt could knock out Ellenberger but I don’t think this will happen. I would love to be wrong though, I have always been a huge fan of Nate “The Great” because of how well rounded he is but this isn’t his fight.
The thing that puts “The Great” at a tremendous disadvantage is he is coming into this fight on short notice and Ellenberger isn’t the opponent to come against at short notice. I am seriously scratching my head as to why he took this one on short notice. The UFC has immediately cut someone after losing a fight that they took at the last minute(to please the fucking UFC) and given Marquardt’s past with Zuffa he stands a good chance of getting cut if he loses. There is that and it seems like age may be creeping up. So I have already made the case as to why I think this is a tall order for Marquardt so let’s visit the other side of the coin and see why it looks so good for Ellenberger.
The reason this thing looks so good for Ellenberger is the fact that he is a takedown machine that does not tire very easily. He is also more elusive than most in the division which makes it less likely that he will absorb a whole lot of punishment and gives him good odds of avoiding the power of Marquardt. So what does “The Juggernaut” need to do? Take him down stupid! Though he is elusive if he keeps this things upright I think it is only a matter of time before he goes night night. He could keep this standing and prove me wrong but if he has half a brain he will realize that is not the path to go. “The Great” is in excellent shape, can sustain power over a longer fight, and has heart so I would have a lot of difficulty writing him off completely but it doesn’t look good.
Marquardt needs the KO here and if Ellenberger can prove as hard to hit as Saffiedine, I think this is his fight to lose. This is reinforced if Ellenberger doesn’t let Marquardt stay upright for too long... I say this like it is easy but it isn’t. Marquardt has stuffed an astonishing considering in recent history he has fought Tyron Woodley, Dan Miller, Yushin Okami, and Chael Sonnen. Ok, fuck it, I’m going balls deep. I am going with Marquardt for the win by KO. As I type it, chills resonate down my digits and I almost immediately regret making such a call considering how tall of an order this one is. I don’t think it will happen and I will probably be wrong but I am hoping this goes from my lips... Er, um fingertips I guess to God’s ears as I would really love to see the great pull this out. Good luck, Nate. I am rooting for you.
Nelson vs Santiago
This is another one of those fights where I reluctantly pick a winner but will be cheering for the underdog anyway. Strange way of going about it but don’t judge me. As usual I will break down the advantages and focus on the glimmers of hope that my underdog has to win. So, who do I want to win? Jorge Santiago. Who do I think will win? Gunnar Nelson. This is definitely a test for Nelson as this is the biggest name he has faced and Santiago is about as well rounded as they come. I am not purely swayed by the lopsided line at or around -275 for Nelson and +225 for Santiago respectively. So let’s take a look at how Gunnar Nelson stands the best chance of winning.
Jorge Santiago is a BJJ black belt and is no stranger to the MMA game 33 career fights to his credit, a Sengoku Middleweight champ, and Strikeforce Middleweight champ. Most of his career wins come by submission, but KO/TKO wins are a close second(13:10) so he is the epitome of well rounded, ready wherever the fight goes. Where will it go? The ground for sure. That is where Gunnar wants the fight and that is probably where it is going to go. Though Santiago has excellent takedown defense, Nelson is not only fast but he is excellent at setting up takedowns and getting them... Gunnar Nelson is lightning fast. Once in a dominant position, it is not only extremely difficult to fend of Nelson but he is a fast finisher. Almost all of his wins come by submission in the first round so once he gets someone down it usually ends quickly.
So, what about Santiago? I still like him to upset and I will explain how I think he can win this one. I think that staying upright is where he can drag Gunnar Nelson out of his element. He can stay competitive on the ground as he has yet to be submitted even in a defeat to Demian Maia which is a feat in itself. So back to Santiago and the striking. One thing that is obvious in Nelson’s record is he hasn’t gone the distance much, and upon watching a few it is notable that he doesn’t keep upright for long. He also has a very wide stance with low hands. This can prove problematic if he cannot put Santiago on his back as he is more susceptible to getting hit in the head but also, leg kicks can knock him off balance easier if his stance is too wide... This can lead to a flurry that can spell the end. The only thing that concerns me is that this is Santiago’s first outing at Welterweight and with a 15 pound difference in class, a bad weight cut could prove disastrous.
The weight cut scares me but also his camp... The Blackzillians as almost all of their fighters have looked like shit or fought the wrong strategy recently. In the realm of a decision, it really depends on if it is a grappling or upright affair. If it remains upright I like Santiago for a finish or decision win but if this is primarily grappling I like Gunnar not only for his skill set but the unknown that comes with such a large weight cut so late in Santiago’s career. So in close, though I think the underdog factor is higher than what most would lead you to believe(I am putting some coin on Santiago) I still think that Nelson has this.
Mills vs Riddle
Someone once told me that picking the outcome of fights is easy if you always pick the favorite. First of all, fuck you good sir, and second of all I do not always pick the favorites... Though when I do it is usually based on sound reasoning. I know what you’re thinking” What about UFC 156?” but that was a damn anomaly, everyone knows that, I seriously think Jon Jones could have lost to the Easter Bunny on that night. Moving on, I will be picking the underdog with relative confidence. The fight I am talking about you ask? Why, it is Che “Beautiful” Mills against Matthew “Deep Waters” Riddle with Riddle playing underdog. On paper, it’s your classic striker vs. grappler match up but let’s looks a little closer.
If we are looking at the height and size department they are virtually identical which I think is something that will play into Mr. Riddle’s hands quite nicely but we will get into that very shortly. No one is giving up too much in the age or experience department so those areas are neutral. So how do they win? For Che Mills it is pretty obvious considering his penchant for striking related violence: KO/TKO, or maybe a decision if he remains upright. That, however is a big if... I think Mills is going to find himself on his back more often than a two dollar hooker in this fight. I don’t want to insinuate that him winning is an impossibility but let’s look at a few reasons as to why chances are good that he will spend some mat time with “Deep Waters” and it most certainly won’t be “Beautiful”.
The one intangible here is hometown advantage for Mills, but I don’t think this will be of note as in his last trip to England, Riddle gotten shat on as hard as one could get shat on. So let’s look at the one glaring deficit in Che’s game: Takedown defense. Rory MacDonald took him down at will and according to Fightmetric his takedown defense rate is in the neighborhood of 33%. If he were facing Duane Ludwig or Dan Hardy this wouldn’t matter but it does here. It is no secret that the glaring deficit in Riddle’s game is his striking, coupled with his porous defense on the feet one wouldn’t be crazy to think that if the scrap remains on the feet that this is Mills’ fight but that is what I am counting on. Matt may let the hands go but as soon as he tastes that leather and pain lasagna that “Beautiful” is serving he will immediately take him down. Since Mills doesn’t have a significant reach advantage it will be harder for him to stay long and keep Riddle outside of takedown range.
The reason I am harping so much on the mat aspect so much is because of Matt Riddle’s resume. His wrestling is VERY strong in High School he achieved State/National championship honors and spent two years as a division 1 NCAA wrestler. He also holds to his credit wins at NAGA, Grappler’s Quest, and Copa Atlantica Brazilian Jiu Jitsu tournaments or high(all advanced division or higher) and most recently placed 2nd in the NAGA worlds expert division. So, when we look at all of this and the very real possibility that Mills cannot defend the takedown you can easily see why I am skeptical of the line on this one. The line goes as high as -266 to +175 which is bullshit. So, there we have it, I pick Riddle and let’s hope I am right.
Chris Camozzi vs Nick “The Promise” Ring
I like two things about Nick “The Promise” Ring headed into this scrap against Chris Camozzi. The first is fairly obvious: his hilarious moniker. The second thing I like is his probability of taking the W but I will get to that later. So, here we are folks, another one of them striker vs. grappler mixups. Interestingly enough, this is the second fight on this card pitting two Ultimate Fighter alumnus against each other. On this one however, I am not excited as I am for Ricci vs. Fletcher. Both fighters are fairly entertaining to watch, and Camozzi brings everything including the kitchen sink but I foresee this one being a bit more one sided than competitive. If it stays upright, I think Camozzi will dominate and if not the converse is likely tol be true.
So, who do I have you ask? Nick Ring and here is why. Ring has the capability take this to the ground: a realm in which he is extremely adept and where Camozzi is very weak. One thing even the most pedestrian of MMA fan can notice when perusing Camozzi’s record is that all of his losses are are against strong wrestlers and grapplers which plays right into Rings hand. Camozzi in the past has proven to not fare too well against these types and I am thinking that Ring knows this... If he doesn’t he is smoking some good shit and I need to meet his dealer. I digress, though Ring isn’t afraid to let the hands go a little, I think that Camozzi has Ring beat in the stand up department and he needs to respect that and try and get this thing to the floor.
There aren’t too many intangibles worth fussing over. Sure, the Canadian crown may cheer for him since he fights out of Canada but he isn’t from there so I wouldn’t expect too vociferous of a crowd rooting for him. I think Ring’s key to victory here is going to be to mix things up and effectively use his striking to set up the eventual takedown. If he doesn’t set up his takedowns effectively he may not be able to get Camozzi down as frequently which could potentially impede his ability to garner a unanimous decision or even better, get the submission. I see Ring winning via submission or unanimous decision but you can never count Camozzi out. If Camozzi can keep this thing on the feet I think “The Promise” is going to be in for a long and painful night.
Mike “the Martian” Ricci vs Colin “Freakshow” Fletcher
Alright my underground heads, I am back from the haze of alcohol, beaches, and parties that was my hiatus to help you out with some more fights. Before doing a little bit of digging on this one I wasn’t looking forward to it too much. Why? They are both TUF washouts and even the winners of The Ultimate Fighter haven’t looked like much in recent years(excluding Roy Nelson). We are certainly far removed from the days of Bisping, Evans, Leben, Griffin, Bonnar, etc. After looking into these two prospects however, I feel like an idiot for ever believing so strongly in such a sentiment. Both of these men are coming off of a loss and on a thinning UFC roster they both need a win bad and are sure to be hungry.
On paper, Ricci is a heavy favorite and but I like Freak Show's chances to pull the upset... I still pick Ricci though. In my humble opinion, I think this fight is going to come down to who can put whom on their back easier. The reason I say this is that both men are excellent strikers but I think that if one or the other is on the receiving end of too much punishment they will endeavor to take this pursuit to the floor. Who has better tools for this given this scenario? Mike Ricci. I don’t want to take anything away from Fletcher, he has excellent scrambling skills and is great at transitioning from scramble to submission which is why I like his odds of pulling the upset. I believe that the wrestling advantage goes to Ricci for a few reasons: One being Freak Show’s location... the British aren’t the best of wrestlers and this isn’t due to origin but the fact that wrestling isn’t as big there nor is it as ingrained in school(Middle school, high school, etc). The other reason being camps as Fletcher simply doesn’t have the quality of wrestlers in his camp to sufficiently prepare for Ricci whom I am sure has been working his wrestling.
On the feet, I like Fletcher for a few reasons, one is the height advantage as Freak Show stands 2 inches taller than Ricci at 6’2 and this can help him in keeping Ricci on the outside. He also switches up his attack a lot more frequently than Ricci... He throws more leg kicks, body shots and has a more aggressive approach. This is what can cost him however, Ricci isn’t too far away from Fletcher with regard to striking prowess and I think if he sustains too much punishment, he will go for the takedown and I don’t think there is much Fletcher can do to stop it. One caveat is that during the transition from vertical to horizontal Fletcher is a master of turning things around and I think this is his best chance. If he can start a scramble and get Ricci on his back, Ricci is not known for fighting off of his back and can lose here. Ricci will need to be cautious during his pursuit of the takedown as Fletcher is excellent in this capacity.
So who do I pick? I side with the bookies. Though I love Fletcher’s variety of attack, his aggression I think that Ricci has this one if he fights “Smart”. I would prefer he stands and bags regardless as that will be the most aesthetically appealing contest but I think he can and will take it to the floor in the event he cannot do much or is losing on the feet. I think that if Fletcher wants to win this it is either going to be submission following a scramble or by keeping Ricci at bay and peppering him from the distance. If Ricci can hang on the feet or finds success with the takedown this will be a very long night for Fletcher. Let’s see how it goes though... I am putting a few bucks on Fletcher for the upset. This doesn’t make sense but you’ve been reading for a while now and should know I am a sucker for an underdog.
Diaz -vs- Thomson
Man, this card is so stacked. I wish it were more than four televised fights but luckily one can usually catch the pre lims through FaceBook, Etc so not all is lost and a night of entertaining fights is in store. I digress, Thomson vs Diaz is going to be an interesting fight in which both fighters pose some interesting challenges to the other. Diaz for one, has the potential to keep the fight on the outside and hit Thomson up with some of that good old Stockton slap which could make it a long night for Thomson. However, for this to go down in such a fashion Diaz must use his length to control the distance and dictate the pace... Maybe ease up on the forward motion.
The odds are pretty tight on this one with Diaz at -185 and Thomson at +170 and I think this line is justified and I totally wouldn’t bet on this one. Full disclosure, I am a huge fan of the Diaz brothers so prepare first for my dream scenario which returns us to why I think that why I think that distance will make all of the difference in the world. Right now, it is no secret that Thomson has been working very hard on his wrestling and with the reach advantage that Diaz has he needs to close the distance fast for his sake he should know a boxing match will not favor him. If this does indeep stay upright it will can be a long night for Thomson as his striking defense is porous and Nate much like his brother Nick is a volume striker who always moves forward... This is where Thomson may be able to work some magic.
Thomson will need to dodge the incoming strikes and use that temporary change in distance to shoot in and take him down. If he gets Diaz on his back, “The Punk” is by no means out of the woods on this one. Out of the sixteen wins Diaz has to his credit, eleven come by submission and an astounding amount of these come off the back. Sure, his slick submissions have been nullified in the past by strong wrestling I find it difficult to put Thomson’s wrestling on par with Henderson, Maynard, or Guida whom can smother virtually anyone with little concern for the danger of submission. I think that if this fight goes to decision, it favors “The Punk” more so than Diaz as all but one of his losses come by decision.
I fear that Thomson has a healthy chance of taking the upset on here because Diaz is pretty easy to take down and if Thomson can dodge the submissions he can win via the classic Jab,Jab, takedown, repeat. This is a very real possibility because I am sure that Thomson realizes that not only does he give up a tremendous reach advantage but also a skill advantage in the striking department. Thomson also has a solid fight IQ and realizes that with the state of judging takedowns are king and can push the decision in your favor if all else is equal. So, how do I see it going down? I think that Diaz will probably win but one cannot count Thomson out given how Diaz has lost in the past. That being said, GO DIAZ!!
Henderson vs Melendez
With each analysis I type I grow more and more excited for this card and luckily it isn’t too far away. Suffice it to say, I am looking forward to every fight though I am expecting that none of the main card fights are going to go my way. I doubt I will be a petulant child come the end of the card as I anticipate whether or not my people lose, the fights will be exciting and at the end of the day, that is all I am looking for. I still find myself indifferent to the outcome of the outcome of Melendez Vs. Henderson as I do not hold a strong affinity for either fighter but I look forward to this fight just the same... So let’s start with the betting line on this fight. The odds according to the bookies favor Henderson at -260 to +270 for Melendez and I can’t say I disagree with that too much. I would even be bold enough to say the line should be wider.
Much like understanding math at a high level the key question here is... Why? Well, Benson Henderson does everything better than Melendez. Great, Melendez has more fights but let’s be honest... Who gives a fuck? I mean really? Just take a second to look at both of their records and even if you’re a mongoloid one thing is painfully obvious... The dissonance between their records with regard to quality of opposition they have faced is clearly in favor of Henderson. In direct comparison of records I would not feel uncomfortable saying that Melendez has a padded record. Sure, he beat a few Japanese notables but anyone who follows this sport closely certainly realizes that the glory days of Japanese MMA is nothing more than a distant memory... I mean Shinya Aoki is the crown jewel of JMMA and Melendez shat all over him. It would be fair to say that Henderson would murder Aoki considering his recent competition. I’m not a fan of MMA math but in this instance this says a lot.
I am sure you are thinking that I am a dick for feeling so confident that Henderson will beat him and I hate feeling so confident in Henderson but it is what it is. Look at the last loss that Henderson has is against Pettis whom I think could beat Melendez just the same. I think that Melendez may think that Henderson has better striking and may seek to focus on wrestling which I STILL see going bad for Melendez. Henderson is faster, stronger, and better. So, what is the one thing that prevents me from out right overlooking Melendez? Well, if this isn’t your first MMAUG article you should know it is the intangibles.
Melendez has recently mentioned that he has that good old Strikeforce to UFC chip on his shoulder. Normally, in my opinion this would not be of note but considering how Strikeforce to UFC transplants have seriously shaken the rankings up one would be foolish to ignore this trend. Looking at UFC on Fox 7 it is painfully obvious that this card is filled with Strikeforce vets looking to prove themselves... Regrettably I think this is the only thing that will favor Melendez and considering the fact that Henderson faced this SAME EXACT position... Yeah, I hope the “chip” Melendez has on his shoulder is of the Pringles variety as Melendez is going to be hungry after Benson Henderson is done winning. I predict a victory for Henderson via however he wants. Call me crazy but I think Melendez is in way too deep on this one.
Daniel Cormier vs Frank Mir
Have you seen the odds on this fight? Had I not checked them out before the beer and Jagermeister set in I would seriously think I was hallucinating or something. Right now, the line goes as high as -388 for Cormier and +373 for Mir. I don’t think the odds should be that long considering that Mir isn’t just some drunk off the street, he is a former heavyweight champ and a perennial top 10 heavyweight. Mir also holds unparalleled submission prowess for the division to his credit and solid hands to boot. One would be blind to not see he poses a lot of threats to Daniel Cormier whom I think is highly overvalued going into this fight. Though, I don’t see this affecting Cormier’s ability to close as he has been thoroughly respectful of the challenge he faces come Saturday evening. Intangibles make fights folks, look at Gastelum vs. Hall if you don’t believe me.
One thing that will be immediately noticeable even to the most pedestrian of MMA fan is both the height and size advantage Cormier will be giving up to Mir. Ok, yeah Cormier probably has the speed advantage but the real question is how is he going to use it? I think Cormier will be best served to briefly engage on the feet, go for the takedown, punch a bit, and get the fuck up. If he is foolish enough to stay on the ground for too long he runs the risk of getting caught up in a submission by Mir whom is more than capable of accomplishing such a feat. I think Cormier may also possess some advantage on the feet but I don’t think he has the power to put Mir away on the feet. Mir is by no means bullet proof but in recent history he has only gone to sleep against the likes of Junior Dos Santos, Shane Carwin, and Brock Lesnar. I don’t think Cormier has that sort of power.
As I look at this fight more and more the line looks less and less crazy. Still crazy though, +373/-388 is crazy as fuck. I like how Frank has progressed with his hands, but his speed doesn’t seem to be there and I think that even though Cormier has yet to face anyone whom has a submission pedigree that remotely approaches Mir he has an elite level wrestling pedigree which is a blueprint to trouble for Mir. Wow, never mind... Those odds are spot on... Short of scoring a submission Mir is fucked. He is by no means a knockout artist and has struggled against elite level wrestlers. Sure, he caught Lesnar but Lesnar was a total fucking noob when that fight went down... I mean who the fuck leaves a leg in the middle of Mir’s guard? A noob does.
I have always been one of Frank Mir’s detractors but I have always respected his skill and most importantly how well rounded he is but this fight is tailor made against him. Sure, Cormier doesn’t have the power to put him away like JDS, Carwin, and Lesnar did but despite Mir’s well rounded fight game(I mean, very well rounded. Infinitely more well rounded than most) he always tends to shit the bed against people who do one thing very well... Wrestle. I normally hate calling a winner as it feels pretentious and disrespectful but I have difficulty seeing how Mir wins this other than submission due to a silly mistake made by Cormier whom is experienced enough to avoid making such mistakes. So, I guess I take Cormier to win and this is a bitter pill for me to swallow.
I reluctantly concede this fight is another instance of the old guard making way for the new and as someone whom has been watching this fight since it’s infancy I sincerely hate it and will be rooting for Mir no matter how long the odds. They are both of similar age but without question Frank Mir has been around longer and I am really hoping that the experience factor serves him well.
Matt Brown vs Jordan Mein
I always find myself looking forward to any fight involving Matt Brown and I am seldom disappointed... Well, there was that fight against John Howard but let’s not talk about that. Wasn’t pretty but I can’t blame him, his back was against the wall, he has a family to feed and would have almost certainly been cut if he lost again so you gotta do what you gotta do. Brown finds himself right now riding a four fight win streak and has been the upset in three of his last four fights. Mein is also on a streak at three wins. Brown has looked very hungry in his last few fights which I find extremely encouraging.. I really like Brown for the upset but I am not sure he can pull this one off.
So, let’s kick some tires here. Matt Brown has been looking better and better, with excellent striking accuracy and above average takedown defense. I don’t think Matt Brown is going to have to worry about takedown defense but he will need to respect this kid’s hands. Mein in most recent history has tested his mettle against some strong wrestlers and has fared quite well. This is an important factor because if the standing fight doesn’t go well for Brown, please believe he will go for the takedowns. Sure, Brown’s hands have been more dangerous than ever... About as dangerous as a catholic priests hands around a defenseless child but I think Mein has him beat in this department. I think Mein may be just as durable and more technical than Brown.
If we look a little further into the past, Mein has flustered and defeated striking powerhouses such as Marius Zaromskis, and Evangelista Santos by controlling the distance and timing his strikes juuuust right, in other words beating them at their own game. Granted, Brown looked great against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson who is a very talented striker I’m not convinced this says much about his striking as Mein’s wins against the above named talents does. So, how can Mein lose this? Possibly on the feet as all it takes is one punch to put someone to sleep but he has only been defeated by KO/TKO once in his career and this was very early against a virtually anonymous fighter. His recent performances have done nothing but bolster my confidence in his chin. So, how else can he lose? I think that if he let’s Brown dictate the pace, close the distance, and/or press him against the cage en route to a decision nod. I also think that a Brawl would favor brown here for a finish or once again a decision... The latter being more likely.
So, how can Mein win? Staying on the outside, controlling distance, and timing his strikes just right. I don’t think there are many intangibles of note here, Mein is almost as experienced as Brown and has spent some time under the bright lights so I am thinking the infamous “octagon jitters” will be a non factor. Having spent more time in the UFC and often having entertaining fights I think the crowd will be on his side. They won’t be vociferous however as he does not enjoy a hometown advantage... Well, Mein is Canadian so he has a home country advantage but I don’t think this will mean much. I see this fight going to decision as both have proven hard to finish but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mein caught a submission as Brown hasn’t always proved to have the best submission defense either but I really see this going to decision... a very fucking exciting fight that can go either way. I like Mein but given recent history I have a hard time betting against Brown... Who I will be rooting for.
Jon “Bones” Jones vs Chael Linn
In MMA sometimes matches occur without regard to things like rankings, status within the division , relevancy, or common sense. Jon “Bones” Jones vs Chael “The Gangster from West Linn, Oregon” Sonnen is a prime example but on a magnitude never seen before in recent UFC history. Sure, there have been some questionable title fights given but these are usually in the instance of injury, etc. Chael Sonnen, the king of self promotion within MMA astutely observed this and attempted to step in for Dan Henderson at the last minute. The motive here serves two purposes, one is to make a ton of cash(UFC) and it’s what the fans want... The former being of more priority to the UFC, let’s be real here.
Though the effort to step up was appreciated and accepted by UFC brass, Jones refused because it was too little notice(about 2 weeks or so) which lead to the first time a UFC card has been outright cancelled. Ever since that point, Sonnen vociferously and publicly chastised the light heavyweight champ with such a dramatic flare that it set the MMA world ablaze. Sonnen, however wasn’t the only one to harshly criticize this, Dana White, and a slew of other figures in MMA(fighters and otherwise) said that Jones had cost undercard fighters a ton of money. Sonnen rode in on this and wouldn’t stop and boy did public interest drum up. I mean really, no one can talk that much shit about someone without the fans wanting to see the outcome of a fight.
So enough background. I know I don’t normally go into it that much but I feel that it was necessary to bring it up. Oh, and one more thing: Chael Sonnen is fighting for the title in a division in which he has not fought in over six years. Ok, so let’s analyze this puppy. In MMA we all know all it takes is a lucky punch or something to that effect to change the tide of a fight which is precisely why I do not like to write someone off... I mean it is so hard not to. I really want to write Chael off here for not only the skill based reason he will most likely lose but also the intangibles, so I will have at both.
So why is this the longshot of all longshots? If you look at the height differential it doesn’t say much, Sonnen is at a respectable 6’1 while Jones is taller at 6’4... It’s the reach in which Chael gives up a solid 10” of reach to Jones which isn’t a good start considering that Sonnen’s only chance of winning this shindig is to take Jones down and beat him up. I mean if Sonnen were fighting Stefan Struve, maybe I could see the reach not mattering but a Struve Jon Jones is not. He is excellent at controlling distance and for the most part seems to choose between short, medium, and long range at will which has the potential to put Sonnen in a world of hurt. So what else in the striking realm is of note? Well, there is the fact that Chael Sonnen his surprisingly hard to hit on the feet, I immediately temper this with the unpredictable nature of Joneses striking.
So, though I think Jones has the solid advantage on the feet there is a very real possibility that we will see a reduced arsenal displayed as he needs to be very careful with kicks as that will give Sonnen a shot at getting this thing to the ground where he needs it. This is the area I can see giving Jones a bit of trouble. Chael if nothing else, is good at staying on top(giggity) and smothering his opponents... He tends to not do much damage when on top but he convincingly wins the round more often than not. We have yet to see Jones off of his back but I don’t think he’s going to pose much of a submission risk as much as an escape problem. Sonnen has neutralized world class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners in the past so I think that odds are good that if he gets on top he can and will dominate. That’s a big if that he needs to happen as on the feet, things look terrible.
The further you read, you wonder “Well, if it’s such a squash match, why watch?” which I totally understand whether or not you haven’t seen Silva vs Sonnen I or not. You guessed it, intangibles! If you are new to this MMA thing, I cannot stress the significance of intangibles in MMA. In this particular fight, I think Sonnen has an advantage he enjoyed in the Silva fight(of which he failed to completely capitalize on) is the fact that his opponent is completely overlooking him. Jones is already talking about the next fight, super fights, and all sorts of thing not related to the task at hand. The problem is that Sonnen is a quitter and this is the most important intangible here. He either slips at the last moment(Silva, Filho) or outright quits under pressure(Silva V. Sonnen II) and this is something that cannot be ignored.
I am no Jon Jones fan by any measure... though I would be stupid to try and claim that he isn’t talented, the fact still remains that this guy is a colossal douche. He couldn’t be any less likable to me whereas Sonnen is the polar opposite: charismatic, entertaining, and creative. I will earnestly rooting for Sonnen and might even put some money on it given the long odds and my affinity for betting on underdogs but it still doesn’t look good. I hope to be happy and mad all at once at the end of this fight: happy that Sonnen won but mad that I wrote him off but man this is bad. That being said, I am a fan of watching things play out in the octagon so you know where I will be come this Saturday.
Mark Munoz vs Tim Boetsch
MMA is a sport in which the landscape can change very rapidly and any sort of extended lay off makes it harder to come back in and return to your place within the division. So, you should already know who I am talking about if you follow this stuff somewhat closely but if you don’t we are talking about Mark Munoz in his return to the Octagon against a very game Tim Boetsch. This fight is a smart but dangerous choice, reason being it isn’t an obvious tune up fight but he doesn’t gain much with a win over “The Barbarian” Tim Boetsch but has quite a bit to lose as that sort of win can help thrust Boetsch closer to the vaunted title picture. If I were Munoz I wouldn’t have taken this one coming from a one year lay off but maybe I am just a bitch. This fight has the potential to stand out as one of the best on the card considering how hungry Munoz should be returning from a loss and a one year lay off.
This fight seriously could go either way and your average line reflects it at a perceived mean of +118/-119 favoring Munoz. Suffice it to say, I wouldn’t plop down any money on this and definitely don’t put it in a parlay as Boetsch stands an excellent chance of winning this. Both fighters have a strong wrestling pedigree but I think that Munoz has an edge considering his level of success took him to the NCAA championships where he won in 2001. Boetsch is no slouch though as he has to his credit 4 state wrestling titles. These guys are animals when it comes to the grappling game so if we see a grappling based affair I doubt it will be boring. I anticipate the first thing that will be on these guys mind is going to be to get it to a familiar realm. If this stays on the feet I give a slight edge to Munoz and I also think Munoz’s chances are good if he is able to engage by shooting from outside... I don’t think Boetsch will be able to stop him from taking him down at will, he just might spend more time on his back than a hooker in Amsterdam.
I think that if Munoz is able to employ a top control based strategy using takedowns from mid range to get there, he just may be able to pound “The Barbarian” out. The reason I also think that Munoz stands a slight edge on the feet is because Boetsch is strongest at close range in the clinch and though he throws solid body and leg kicks he can be plodding at time which is visible in his almost 1:2 takedown ratio. Should Munoz press the takedowns I think this can be a bad night for Boetsch. That being said, don’t think I am sleeping on “The Barbarian” either. He is an extremely tough fighter and let’s not forget that Munoz is coming off of a one year lay off as well. So, how do I see Boetsch winning if he pulls the upset? He will need to control the clinch and batter Munoz with those brutal legs and elbows of his.
Boetsch can win this in decisive fashion in the clinch due to not only the strikes but also his unorthodox judo like trips and throws. Though I think Munoz should be able to shake these off, I think he will also prove difficult to keep down should he land a throw. I think in order to get within range for the clinch he needs to utilize carefully timed leg kicks to throw Munoz off balance and give him that shot. The problem here is that if he is too slow or chooses a bad time Munoz will either knock his block off or score the takedown. That being said, Munoz also needs to respect “The Barbarian’s” gangster and employ a takedown based approach to either go to the decision for a win or KO/TKO Boetsch. Boetsch is going to have a hell of a time winning this thing but it will be a very entertaining fight. Until Saturday, we shall see.
Andrew Craig vs Chris Leben
I hope you are ready for another crass yet complete fight analysis. This fight may be the only fight we cover on the undercard but I doubt it since Gonzaga vs. Herman is literally two heavyweights fighting for their jobs. Please, tell me you haven’t detected the large amount of fluff that is going on here because I really have nothing nice to say about Andrew Craig’s chances against Chris Leben. Don’t get me wrong, anyone who has followed MMA longer than a month knows that the outcome of any given fight can hinge on just one simple mistake or “lucky” punch. That being said, I am highly skeptical of Craig’s ability to capitalize on any mistake. Sure, he can make the effort but I don’t think he can finish Leben.
All of my life, one mantra has been impressed upon me as a lesson for adulthood: Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket. I have never been a betting man, let alone a high stakes betting man but I would feel comfortable betting a G on this one. Sure, the line favors Craig but I feel this is crazy talk. I genuinely feel that Craig’s only avenue to victory is via unanimous decision as his record indicates he isn’t particularly skilled at putting people away. A point that further adds to the irony is the fact that his nickname is “Highlight” which is hilarious considering he has only 4 finishes out of 8 wins. At this point, you should be wondering why I feel so confident. Well, read on fucker and follow me to the next paragraph.
Oh, you’re still here? Sweet, my furious typing will be in vain. So, iwhy does Craig stand a better chance of winning by decision? Well, his knockouts and submissions do not come against anyone of note. I don’t mean any disrespect to “Sapo” Natal but when you have been TKO’d three times in a fairly green career... Well, a TKO doesn’t mean much against you. He also doesn’t possess any wins over a high quality Jiu Jitsu based opponent nor a durable striker(which is what Leben is). This poses a problem considering how strong Leben is in both areas. If you don’t know about his durability on the feet... PLEASE watch Martin vs. Leben. He is most dangerous when he is about to be finished which is a huge problem.
What about submissions? Fuck you. That’s how I feel about submissions. The last time Leben lost by submission was in 2009 against a wrestler of a higher caliber than Craig(Jake Rosholt) and that is only because the referee called it. Sure, he lost a TKO to Munoz, but a Mark Munoz Craig is not. Going purely off of his record, he doesn’t have the required power to put Leben away. So like I said, I think this is really Leben’s fight to lose and considering the one year layoff, I think he will simply be too hungry to make any stupid mistakes. Judging by the pre fight interviews, Leben has his mind right. I see Leben winning via finish of one variety or another. I hope I’m not wrong as I just might eat my shoe.
Denis Siver vs Cub Swanson
After a brief UFC drought this weekend promises to bring a huge card filled with exciting scraps from top to bottom. Beginning the main card will be a featherweight tilt between Denis Siver and Cub Swanson. This fight is a must win for Swanson because if he loses this one his commendable four fight win streak will be for naught and he will be relegated outside of the title picture until he strings some more wins together I normally like to cover intangibles after thoroughly evaluating how the fight will proceed but this one is extremely important as it should make for a hungry and dangerous Swanson. Sure, Siver is in the midst of a career renaissance as he moved down from lightweight(155 lbs) to featherweight(145) and holds to his credit a two fight win streak but I feel like Swanson has developed more completely. So,that being said let’s take a look at the other aspects concerning this fight.
If I were one to hold too much stock in MMA math, I would say that Cub Swanson should win because he beat perennial contender Ross Pearson and Siver lost to Pearson. I think Swanson should win but not because of having any faith in MMA math. Though Siver has moved down to 145 pounds he has never been known to be a particularly nimble fighter, what is interesting though is that despite this he is fairly difficult to takedown and hit. He is also a very hard hitting fighter and tough to put away which is precisely why I think Swanson should take a competitive decision. Though anything is possible in this sport I feel Cub is too anemic to put Siver away via KO/TKO stoppage. I don’t think we will see much on the ground either as these guys definitely enjoy a primarily stand and bang affair which personally, is my cup of tea. So why should Swanson take it? Well, one thing that stands out is he has fought and won against progressively stronger competition and is scratching the upper echelons of the division while Siver has struggled against upper mid tier opposition.
I think that the avenue for a Swanson victory will be to pop in and out of range and get strikes in while he is there. This will be a formidable task considering that Siver constantly moves forward and is very difficult to slow down. One thing he could capitalize on is timing a take down just right to get Siver on his back while he is moving forward. Getting Siver down won’t be easy but considering the grappling prowess that Swanson has, I think that once he gets him down, he stands a strong chance of being able to finish Siver especially if he takes his back. Though I see Swanson taking this I think that Siver has two avenues that the bookies are overlooking considering the -250/+190 line(Swanson/Siver).
First, there is the possibility of utilizing some of that good old ground and pound we don’t frequently from Siver or possibly a submission but I find the latter improbable at best. The reason I think Siver can win this thing with takedowns is Swanson’s somewhat porous in a wrestler rich weight class. One thing he definitely needs to do if he plans on winning this thing on the feet(avenue #2) is to kick the shit out of Swanson’s legs with unrelenting fury. Doing so will slow him down a bit, reduce his ability to move laterally thus making him even easier to hit. Should he follow this pattern I think he stands an excellent chance at winning. If you like this, you could always plop down some coin with William Hill for Siver by KO as that is at +800 and considering how powerful Siver was at 155, I think that might be too long. So, in less than two days comes the fun part, seeing how it goes down. I am anxiously waiting.
Anderson Silva vs Weidman
It’s almost here. As a borderline obsessed MMA fan it feels like I have been waiting for all fights for an eternity but this one... Wow. I feel like I have been looking forward to it since I was in kindergarten. You know what I am talking about, Silva vs Weidman, fool! Ever since Weidman started talking this fight up, I immediately was turned off with how arrogant he is. Sure, at this level some degree of cockiness is needed but he is kind of reminiscent of Jon Jones pre title... He just sucks at it. Anyway, personal feelings aside Weidman poses one of the biggest threats to Silva in sometime. Sure, there was Sonnen but as much as I enjoy Sonnen sometimes it just feels like he finds a way to lose. Anywho, though he has such a tendency some would argue that he exposed the vaunted blueprint required to beat Silva.
So if this blueprint has indeed been exposed Weidman seems more than capable of following the blueprint en route to victory. That being said, let’s not buy too much into the UFC hype... I could be fighting Anderson Silva tomorrow and they would still try to build me up as the biggest threat to Anderson Silva ever. My skepticism is shared by the bookies but the line still respects Weidman’s skill set it is at around -250/+195 or so and I think that is perfect... Here’s why. So, great Weidman is a two time NCAA All American, his striking has developed etc but two glaring facts remain. One, Silva has had more title defenses than than Weidman has fights as if that isn’t enough Weidman still has yet to fight anyone near Silva’s level. While I respect Weidman’s gangster it is easy to look great against everyone that is not the best in the world and that is why I think he could very well be biting off more than he can chew here.
Anyone who has been watching MMA for more than one second realizes that all fights start on the feet and this one is no different. The thing is, Weidman is way out of his league in this arena so I do not anticipate him trying the striking for too long... If he does he is going to be in a world of shit. While I would like to see that, I am skeptical that Weidman will employ a stand and bang approach against the best striker in the sport. Weidman is one of the most active with regards to takedown attempts which is great but Anderson Silva is excellent at dodging these takedowns and capitalizing on the holes that follow. I also predict a bad night for Weidman if he attempts to get into the clinch for too long as well. No one has proven capable of defeating Silva in the clinch and I don’t foresee it happening tonight either. So if Weidman wins, how does he do it?
In order to win this thing, I think that Weidman is going to need to not get hit by Anderson and utilize persistent takedowns to get Silva down there and keep him down there. That is easier said than done for several reasons. One, is the obvious, getting Silva on his back, with an average take down defense rate nearing 80% it isn’t hard to see why it will be hard to get him there. There is also the fact that Weidman still has to get in range for a takedown and Silva is excellent at capitalizing on even the smallest mistake. If Weidman gets Silva down he has to be careful because not only is Silva great at getting back to his feet but also he is pretty good at getting submissions off of his back even against elite level wrestlers. Ask Chael Sonnen and several others whom have been victims to his slick submissions. So, while I am really counting on Silva winning, Weidman is the real deal and Silva will have a hell of a test on his hands
Charles Olivera vs Frankie Edgar
I’m still trying to figure out whether Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira’s agent hates him, the UFC matchmaker(Joe Silva) hates him, or if he is making these bad decisions on his own. Maybe it’s a combination of the three but I still think that a fight against Frankie “The Answer” Edgar is just a really bad fight. I think that Oliveira has a bright future in the UFC but I also think that they need to gradually develop Oliveira rather than introduce him to the upper echelons of the division prematurely and it is my humble opinion that the latter is happening in this case which is really a shame. He started out in the UFC on a two fight tear against Darren Elkins and then against Efrain Escudero since which he has intermixed win streaks and some losses... and that calf slicer submission after his loss to Cerrone? Amazing. So, rather than eulogize this poor chap, let me move on and analyze this fight which should still be a good one.
As soon as these fools square up the first thing that is noticeable is the reach advantage that Oliveira has over Edgar which could help Oliveira to some degree considering he doesn’t have porous striking defense, in fact one might even be able to say he is somewhat elusive. I don’t think we will see him eat a punch before a TKO/KO stoppage as in the cases against Donald Cerrone and Cub Swanson because frankly I don’t think “The Answer” has that sort of power. Sure, he KO’d Gray Maynard but I think that was a little bit of a fluke. That all being said, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the reach differential as Edgar has always been small for 155(before moving down to 145) so he should be used to negating reach and size advantages. The one area I think Oliveira stands the best chance is going to be in the submissions department but there isn’t much there. Edgar has yet to lose by submission and has some of the best takedown defense in the game. Considering the level of competition “The Answer” has faced, this is a notable achievement.
The more I take a look at this thing the stronger I feel about declaring that this is really Edgar’s fight to lose. I can assure you he will be coming into this fight extremely hungry which is an intangible of note considering that this is the first time in his career that Frankie Edgar is on a losing streak, being the perennial winner he is I am sure he is eager to dig out of it. If this affair stays of the upright variety I expect to see Edgar pop in and out of range like he normally does to land some crisp and effective combos. Sure, he rarely puts anyone away with these combos but they are effective enough to prevent his opponent from mounting any significant offense. Edgar also is really great about mixing in takedowns as well which can make for a tepid opponent. One thing I always want to see is more leg kicks but to be honest I really think that vintage Edgar will be more than sufficient to come away with the win.
Sure, I concede that the ground is where Oliveira might have an advantage but Edgar being a fairly solid BJJ practitioner and being very experienced with a wrestling based approach I do not foresee “Do Bronx” submitting Edgar off of his back. I think we will see this go to a decision in which Edgar should see the nod while a crestfallen Oliveira will be relegated to start over and pick up some more wins. The line reflects my attitudes as it goes as high as -600/+400 and while I think this is a tad out of line I don’t think it’s completely insane here as I don’t see Edgar getting KO’d or submitted and the way Oliveira fights is tailor made to lose to Edgar especially considering a fairly average take down defense game. I also think that the intangibles here play quite nicely for Frankie and I really hope to see him come away with the win. That being said, you already know I am going to plop down $5 on the dog in this one because if I’m wrong the money will make me feel better.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
Demetrius Johnson -vs- John Morag
Another title fight comes and we have yet another eager challenger seeking to wrest UFC gold from the king. The King being Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and the challenger being John Moraga. As a serf on the king’s land, I find myself skeptical that Moraga truly has what it takes to take the gold home. No, I am not just a loyal subject I just look at the two fighters and see a huge difference in skill. Sure, Moraga comes from a great camp(MMA Lab) which also has in its stable current UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson so I am sure this will prove helpful as I think effective wrestling is something he needs to pose a threat to Johnson. To expand on this, he has already proven to have a solid wrestling game and a lot of people are really screaming about how awesome his clinch is and how devastating his elbows are. Don’t get me wrong, that KO against Ulysses Gomez was beautiful but Gomez Johnson is not and I truly think that this is the stiffest test he has faced in his career. I also think that Johnson is a better wrestler.
So why am I so dismissive of his clinch game being a factor? One is that Mighty Mouse is all about that movement and it is very difficult to get him in the clinch let alone keep him in range long enough to get a hold of him. So, what if Moraga is able to get his paws on the champ? I don’t think that if he does get Johnson in the clinch he would be able to keep him there long. Johnson has excellent wrestling and I think the combination of his wrestling and movement will serve him well.. What will make Moraga dangerous and more likely to get him in the clinch and or pressure him than most is that he won’t respect Johnson’s power. Sure, I always believe it is foolhardy to disrespect anyone’s power I don’t think he has much to worry about as Johnson hasn’t finished someone on the feet since 2010, he is the bigger fighter and his pop in and out style doesn’t lend itself to obscene amounts of power being generated. That being said, he will need to be very cautious going in as Johnson is excellent at sandwiching solid combinations with feints and takedowns.
How does Moraga win this? Well if you go off the odds, he simply doesn’t. I have seen odds as high as -450 for the Champ and +350 for the challenger respectively. I think this is a little steep but at the same time I wouldn’t argue that it is completely without merit. We could also go off of MMA math as Johnson beat Dodson and Moraga couldn’t but MMA math is stupid. Sure, Moraga could very well use his hunger to chase down and flash KO but Johnson showed in his outing against John Dodson two things. The first being his durability, the second being his ability to realize a bad situation and evade further punishment... He isn’t likely to get baited into a reckless brawl and I think this fight will be no different. Sure, Moraga could always try to pursue the wrestling but when you look at the fact that Johnson has already beaten arguably the best wrestler in the division(Joseph Benavidez) I think this approach would be frustrating at best as Johnson has some of the best takedown defense in the game. The fun part however, comes in watching this thing and I will be watching with great interest. That being said, for the love of God, can Demetrious finish this thing? I’m sure he would win but I would like to see him get a finish.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Cezar Ferreira vs Thiago Santos (Special Article by The Bookie)
I don't want to anticipates the worst, but let's not sugar coat - this fight is going to suck. Originally, Josh Koscheck vs. Demian Maia were going to be in this slott, but a Koscheck injury cancelled that bout. Another injury forced Clint Hester out of this, allowing Santos to step in. The end result - an all Brazilian battle between two fighters that the average Joe MMA fan have no idea who they are. That doesn't mean it will be a bad fight - just maybe not super compelling on paper.
Lets do this a little different...to give you an idea who these guys are and what to ex[ect.
How do these two stack up?
Ferreira: 28 years old | 6'1" | 79" reach
Santos: 29 years old | 6'0"
What have these two done recently?
Ferreira: W - Sergio Moraes (UD) | L - Elvis Mutapcic (KO) | W - Chaun Sims (KO)
Santos: W - Denis Figueira da Silva (TKO) | L - Vicente Luque (TKO) | W - Junior Vidal (TKO)
So over thier last three fights they both won 2 fights and lose 1 and I am still more confused than a cameleon in a bag of skittles trying to figure why I chose this fight. So here goes...Cezar "Mutante" Ferreira won in the Middleweight bracket of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, defeating Sergio Moraes in the finals. In the year since, Mutante has been out of action with injury. A member of the Blackzilians alongside his TUF coach Vitor Belfort, Mutante shares Belfort's penchant for finishing fights. If you watch his fights on Youtube, as I just did, He was impressive on TUF. His win over Moraes was the first decision victory of his career. He's the kind of fighter who, when given an opening, takes it.
Thiago Santos is, to be clear, NOT the guy who exchanged groin shots with Eric Prindlein Bellator. This Santos was a Welterweight competitor on season 2 of TUF Brazil where he made it to the semi-finals, losing to eventual winner Leonardo Santos. He's making his Middleweight debut here. Thiago has yet to face any notable competition in his MMA career, and is taking his first step onto the big stage here. He comes to MMA with a background in capoeira, which is always fun, plus some solid Muay Thai experience. And, you know, jiu jitsu. We'll see what he brings to the table in his Octagon debut.
Now to the nitty gritty, Santos was defeated twice on TUF: Brazil 2 by both finalists, Leonardo Santos and William Macario, and it looked like he wasn’t gonna be brought into the UFC, though he was on the radar as an injury replacement for any fight card in Brazil. When Hester pulled out with the injury, it created an open slot, and Santos took the opportunity. It is a big risk, though, as Santos will be moving up a weight class for the fight, and Ferreira is both an excellent fighter and a huge middleweight, so Santos will be giving up a lot of size. Santos has an edge of having more fight experience though Ferreira has fought at a higher level.
Ferreira is a complete package as a fighter. He has vicious striking abilities and his ground game is solid and improving. He fights as a southpaw, and under the tutelage of Belfort, he has become a younger version of Belfort. He fights like Belfort, and with his power and aggression on the feet, he could have a Belfort-like finish of Santos. Santos should look to just weather any storm Ferreira brings, but he may be in over his head here. The best bet for Santos would be to counter by using kicks and mixing up his attacks. Ferreira, much like Belfort, can get wild if he gets too comfortable, and Santos would be wise to draw Ferreira into wild exchanges. The downside of that is Ferreira’s power will knock Santos out. Ferreira likes to clinch and rock the body, and he has a good sense of attacking when he has his opponent in trouble. This is a fight tailor-made for a Ferreira win, and he will score an impressive finish sometime in the first ten minutes.
So if someone had a gun to my head and I had to choose a winner, the money will be on Ferriera in 2 rounds...let's see.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Phil Davis vs Lyoto Machida
Fox and the Fertitta brothers have been trying to push the sport of MMA to the forefront of modern sports and one would be hard pressed to argue that they have done otherwise. One element that is prevalent in mainstream professional sports is statistics and while they have some merit in MMA, they aren’t as telling in this sport because of how new this sport is. Why do I say this? Because the fightmetric stats directly contradict the reality in the figh between Lyoto Machida and Phil Davis. How? Well, one glaringly obvious point is how fightmetric has Phil Davis as not only more elusive than Machida but also as more accurate. What world are we in? I don’t want to take anything away from “Mr. Wonderful” but I find myself thoroughly befuddled whence trying to accept any sort of notion that Lyoto Machida is an inferior striker to Phil Davis.
I can bitterly accept that Phil Davis is possibly a more adept grappler than Lyoto Machida but even in a realm where this is a reality Phil Davis loses. Sure, he might have more of those elusive NCAA credentials than Machida’s past opponents but that being said, Machida has flourished against all of the best MMA wrestlers in the game. Pure wrestling doesn’t get you far, adapting traditional folk wrestling into a multi faceted MMA game. Rashad Evans exposed this reality thoroughly and this is part of why I feel that Machida will pick Davis apart.. Though having a painfully rudimentary striking game, Davis didn’t begin to look human until fighting Rashad Evans... By human I mean terrible considering his normal performances. Sure, I hate MMA math but I think what Machida did to Evans holds plenty of significance here as Evans is a better wrestler AND striker which failed to befuddle Machida... In fact, Evans found himself at the business end of a technical knockout.
I think that Machida decisively wins this via unanimous decision. On paper he should use crisp striking and top shelf striking defense to keep Davis off guard. Sure, Davis should try to employ his wrestling here but considering Machida’s strong performance against wrestling’s elite I still don’t foresee much of a problem for Machida... I earnestly feel that this fight is too much too soon for Davis despite the disparity in age. I feel confident in taking Machida to win a painfully brutal yet decisive decision victory. Conversely I can see Davis winning in a similar fashion should Machida find himself unable to defend the takedown. The fun comes in watching and suffice it to say I am awaiting this card on baited breath.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Jose Aldo vs Chan Sung Jung
In MMA, people often seem to overlook quality of competition and look at who has a win streak... It’s painfully obvious in announcing when they often exclaim “Look, this guy has a 3 fight win streak so he is ready”. Who has he beat? Doesn’t matter. But it really does, as I could go heralded into a fight on a 5 fight win streak fighting 5 year olds. But hey, it’s a streak dammit(this is hyperbole of course) and to be honest, I really think that is the case in the fight between Jose “Scarface” Aldo and “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung. That was a bit much, I do not want to disregard Jung to such a degree.Hyperbole aside, I am really excited for this fight and I think Jung is a hell of a fighter but he has a hell of a challenge on his hands here as he has been inactive for over a year whereas Aldo will have closer to six months out. Ring rust can be a factor here if Jung has a bad camp or doesn’t take time to properly acclimate himself for any time changes.
The reason I think that the time change can be a factor is because there is a 12 hour time difference and we have to look at the logistics involved in getting himself and his crew over to Brazil from Korea. If Jung doesn’t have someone bankrolling this and is hurting for money, a tight budget may leave him in a spot to where he is not able to get a flight for him and his corner that allows acclimation. The UFC could also foot the bill, which I think is likely considering pressers, weigh ins, etc loom on the horizon as we approach the twilight of the week. This is an unknown to consider if you are insane enough to play the upset with odds favoring Aldo -700 to Jung’s +500 and to be honest I do not think these odds are that crazy.
The reason I feel the steep line is just is when we take the time to look at some stats. First one is looking at the quality of opposition. It is painfully obvious that Aldo whom is in the midst of a three fight title reign over Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, and Kenny Florian. In these fights we have seen him successfully defeat the crisp, varied attack of Edgar, the wrestling of Mendes, and the Muay Thai of Florian. He also holds to his credit wins over Mike Brown, Urijah Faber, and Mark Hominick. Not only has he beaten several former champions in this bunch he has maintained an above average striking percentage as well as striking defense. He is also excellent at timing his strikes and utilizing his leg kicks to keep his opponent at bay and gradually wear them down should they make it into the later rounds. I think this last part is going to be very relevant in this one as I anticipate it staying on the feet. If you also look at his level of accuracy, Aldo has remained active against a consistent stream of higher pedigree strikers.
Though when on the ground, on paper Aldo should be better considering he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu from the vaunted Nova Uniao camp I think that Jung could possibly have a more functional submissions game in his arsenal. Sure, Aldo has a few submission wins to his credit, Jung holds eight to Aldo’s two and more Jung’s are more recent. Ok, I will concede that one of those was to Leonard Garcia(whom isn’t too adept submissions wise) but it is still fairly impressive when we remember that Twister submission. If Jung can keep Jose Aldo down, we could see him with a slight edge but that also being said we have never seen Aldo on his back so I feel that is also an unknown of note. I don’t see ground being much of a factor here, neither spend much time in the clinch and Aldo and Jung are both very adept at stuffing takedowns. I also don’t really see Aldo shooting the double which is another reason why I feel this fight will be decided on the feet.
For Jung, his constant forward motion can either be the sword he uses to gain victory or the shield he goes out on. He has proven to be durable in the past which should serve him well to make it into the later rounds. This is where I feel that he could win as “Scarface” does tend to fade in the later rounds and if Jung can sustain the forward motion this may be an area to hit Aldo harder and more frequently than he might otherwise. it is no secret that Aldo cuts a gang of weight to hit the 145 lb mark and the cut is also bad on him. Other than Jung wearing Aldo en route to a late rally, this fight bad look for Jung. Chiefly, Aldo can and will throw repeated leg kicks as Jung comes forward and Jung will also eat a LOT of strikes going into range. He will need to use a good degree of lateral motion to remain harder to hit and also check leg kicks. The funny thing is that this is also something Aldo can capitalize on should he choose. I am really excited for this fight but I see Aldo taking a one sided decision victory or an early finish.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Brown vs Pyle
Nowadays, in the UFC we are seeing a lot of new, developing talent slowly change the landscape and in this fight we have nothing of the sort. Two seasoned UFC fighters whom are both in the midst of a tear. In this fight, the UFC pits Matt “The Immortal” Brown against Mike “Quicksand” Pyle. Both of these men are very exciting to watch hence why I am so excited to see this fight on the main card. Immediately off the bat one is going to notice the high amount of submissions that Mike Pyle holds to his credit and I think this is an element of note considering that all but two of Brown’s eleven career defeats are the result of submission. I think that this element will be crucial and the fight may very well rest on ability of “The Immortal” to defend the takedown or recover quickly.
The reason I think this could be a fight altering factor has to do with the striking advantage that Matt Brown will have going into this fight. Sure, Pyle has found success on the feet recently but the best of those he has finished via stoppage due to strikes is Josh Neer. Neer is a great striker but I think that Brown is better. I think that Brown will prove to have the stronger chin and may be able to take a few risks considering that Pyle isn’t incredibly accurate on the feet. If Brown is smart though, he won’t take too many risks as Pyle should be eager to take this to the floor considering where his advantage lies. Pyle also has a slower strike output than Brown whom not only is harder to hit and more accurate but also has a two inch reach advantage. Obviously two inches isn’t anything particularly insane but with the experience “The Immortal” has he will be able to make the most of it and make Pyle pay for any big mistakes. What is absolutely key here is that not only will he need to dictate the pace on the feet but also keep this thing vertical.
If you were to ask the bookies right now they have Pyle as a slight underdog and I think that this is fair. Though Pyle is more than adept concerning submissions, the issue for Pyle will be how to get Matt Brown down and keep him there long enough for a submission. To be honest, I think such a scenario is unlikely which is why the line slightly favors Brown. The reason I think that Brown will have the advantage is for two reasons, the first being that Brown has a %66 takedown defense rate while Pyle’s takedown success rate hovers closer to %30. Statistics be damned, should Pyle be able to keep Brown down for an extended period of time I would not be surprised to see him pull the submission. As I have said before, this scenario is unlikely but it is a significant threat to Brown. Since I am rooting for Brown, I hope he has been drilling takedown defense hard considering how much rides on this.
I don’t see either of these two men fighting for the welterweight crown any time soon but boy are they entertaining to watch. I am genuinely excited to see how a continued win streak will pan out for either one. If they continue to win, they will get their title shot eventually and prove me wrong. So, if I were a betting man looking to go smart, I would bet on Matt Brown and if I like dogs(which I do) I would bet some coin on Pyle. The thing is, I am a betting man but I cannot bet against Brown pulling out a win here. I think that it might be a win via TKO/KO but decision is likely as Pyle isn’t very brittle. Aside from a flash KO or a sudden improvement in wrestling I see this as Matt Brown’s fight to lose. I will be watching at the edge of my seat as I know this is going to be one hell of a fight.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Browne vs Overeem
I love writing these articles, especially on a card like this one, as I get further and further up the card I become more excited and I hope that I pass that on to you. If I don’t well, fuck you then... I kid but I am not. If you cannot get excited for UFC Fight Night 26, join your index and middle finger, press firmly on your neck and check for a pulse because this card is going to be a hell of a ride. The fight we are on now is Travis “Hapa” Browne VS. Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem and is yet another that seems to pit the old school vs the new school. Though they are about the same age, Overeem has fought professionally almost three times longer than Browne has. This is one of those fights where I feel the new school simply isn’t ready for the old school for several reasons. If you haven’t put it together yet, Overeem is the favorite here.
This is going to be a tricky one for Browne in my opinion as he is only appears to be better in one area which would be Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and possibly athleticism. I say athleticism not because of physique but because of “Hapa” experience playing college basketball experience... that being said, this isn’t a combine, this is a fight so let’s look at this thing and see where these guys look strongest. If we start on the feet, one would be insane to say that Browne has an advantage here. Not only is Overeem more technical on the feet, he is also very elusive with an average of 1.64 strikes absorbed per minute and an impressive 65.4% striking defense(stats per Fightmetric). Due to him being more powerful I feel that on the feet “The Demolition Man” stands a strong chance of cutting an angle that Browne isn’t used to and putting him to sleep with a slick counter. It doesn’t help that Browne is giving up a slight reach advantage.
Browne did negate the reach of Stefan Struve but that doesn’t say much as Struve still hasn’t figured out how to effectively keep his opponents out of phone booth range(toe to toe). What Browne needs to do in order to stay alive on the feet is be patient, stay on the outside, and try and wear Overeem’s cardio to slow his obscene striking output. This will be key as Browne not only tends to avoid one of two strikes but he also is a less accurate striker(43.5% to 56.5%) and has a lower strikes landed per minute output(3.5 to 2.7 for Overeem). He will need to make the most of every opportunity which is why I think that his advantage is not on the feet. Let’s also disclose before moving on, Overeem is one cocky SOB. Don’t get me wrong, it is well deserved since he holds Strikeforce, Dream, and K-1 titles to his credit but I don’t think I would be crazy if I said his cockiness is what caused him to lose to Antonio Silva. If he disrespects Browne like he did Silva I think ‘Hapa” can pull off the win if he stays patient.
Outside of capitalizing on arrogance the only other way I see Travis Browne winning this thing is if he finds a way to put Overeem on his back. This will be easier said than done as Overeem is more than adept at stuffing takedowns due to his height, timing, and technical prowess. This is evident as Overeem stuffs 77.1% of takedowns; Browne is no slouch concerning getting the takedown but Alistair Overeem is by far the best fighter he has faced yet concerning takedown defense and technical striking proficiency. One intangible other than possible arrogance that favors Browne is his camp: Jackson’s MMA lead by Greg Jackson. Greg Jackson is hands down one of the best game planners in MMA and if he sees a hole, he will help Browne exploit it as much as possible.
The reason I put so much emphasis on Browne using game planning and keeping Overeem down is for the obvious. This is where Overeem is weakest, not only is he not the best at getting off of his back, but he is also very vulnerable to submissions once he is there. Considering that Browne is solid at getting people down and has better submissions, this is the route he needs to pursue. Browne needs to stay on the outside and capitalize on any missed strikes to get Overeem down. The line reflects this approaching the +200/-200 area for Overeem. I would say if I were to bet on one dog for the night, this would be it. Though I am rooting for Overeem and think he should win via TKO/KO stoppage I am not fully convinced Overeem isn’t looking past “Hapa”. I can’t wait to watch and I hope I am wrong as I would love to see Overeem progress further in the division. I Like Browne though, win or lose he has a very bright future in the UFC.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs Chael Sonnen
A month or so ago, if you asked Shogun what he would be doing on August 17, 2013, I’m guessing one of the last things he would have said is, “I’m fighting Chael Sonnen as the headliner bout for UFC on FOX Sports 1 1 in Boston”. Well, that’s exactly how things turned out for Shogun. He was supposed to fight Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 161, but Nogueira pulled out with an injury. That’s when Chael Marketing entered the picture and he asked to be UFC 161′s savior by replacing Nogueira against Shogun. That’s when visa issues entered the picture and the Shogun-Sonnen UFC 161 match-up was scrapped. There seemed to be enough interest though to still make it happen, so it’s happening. The #7 ranked Shogun and #9 ranked middleweight Sonnen is now the headliner for the Boston event.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Faber vs Alcantara
Urijah Faber has been on a strange fight path ever since dropping the decision to Renan Barao for the bantamweight interim title. I want to make it clear that I am not saying anything negative about the fighters we are going to discuss as it takes a lot to make it in MMA and the ever competitive bantamweight division but let’s be real some fighters are just better than others. First, they had Faber fight Ivan Menjivar which was too tall of an order. Next was Scott Jorgenson whom at one point might have made sense but is now outside of the top 10, and Faber’s next opponent Yuri Alcantara is also on the outside looking in. This is a tremendous opportunity as Alcantara’s career has found a new life since making the drop down to 135 and a win here could put him in the top 10. Faber has found new life at 135 as well, but I think Alcantara has a lot less to lose which is an intangible that can prove to make him extremely dangerous in this one. Hunger is a bitch.
So, let’s look at Alcantara’s record to get a better feel as to who he has faced. One thing that is obvious upon skimming over his record is that though he has faced some solid opposition the level of quality on his resume pales in comparison to that of Urijah “The California Kid” Faber. The biggest win that Alcantara has is against Ricardo Lamas who himself has defeated the likes of Erich Koch and Cub Swanson respectively. This win I think is the most important one of note because it does show that he can excel against the upper echelons of a division(this was while he was still a featherweight) but that being said, this is a new division and time will tell. Another thing that his record shows is that he has an equal amount of KO/TKO finishes to submission finishes which hints at Alcantara being very well rounded. This is a much needed asset in this particular matchup as Faber is about as well rounded as they come and Alcantara will need to be competitive in all areas to win.
So what about Faber? He was a dominant featherweight(145 lbs) champ during his reign in the WEC and has since been a perennial contender in whichever division he has fought. Outside of one or two fights, Faber has fought and defeated the best of the best. When he does lose, it is only to the elite. Just looking at the records and bookies odds alone one might be compelled to completely write off Alcantara here. I think this may be a mistake, and if you like dogs as much as I do, this is as tempting as it gets with odds hovering somewhere around -260/+246 favoring “The California Kid”. This dog suddenly becomes more palatable when we look at the statistics a little closer. Let’s get reach out of the way where Alcantara holds a negligible two inch advantage. This could be easily negated should Faber mix in takedowns with his solid striking and his evasive nature. One area that Faber holds an advantage in is strikes defended at 65% to 53% but he gives up a few other stats to Alcantara in this scrap.
Overall, Faber tends to absorb more strikes per minute, what’s worse is that not only does he land less per minute but he is also pretty inaccurate landing somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 out of 10 strikes. He doesn’t give up much in accuracy though as Alcantara hasn’t proven to be only 5% better.. Let’s also go back to level of competition, though I don’t want to disparage past opponents of Alcantara but it isn’t incredibly hard to have better stats when you are fighting a consistently lower level of competition. Though I think that Faber has some risk here with little reward I do not think we are likely to see him on the losing end of this affair. Faber hasn’t been finished on the feet since Mike Brown in the UFC and I do not expect this to change here either as since then he has fought the likes of Jose Aldo, Brian Bowles, and Eddie Wineland... All of whom have proven more than adept at putting people to sleep. I anticipate Faber mixing it up to befuddle Alcantara and keep him off balance. I think this strategy is key considering how well rounded Alcantara is as he does have the ability to test Faber everywhere. I do think he has what it takes to pull the upset but the odds are pretty steep for a reason. No risk, no reward right?
Josh Koscheck vs Tyron Woodley
We are back in action after a long hiatus due to some technical issues. Technical being my computer sucks but let’s get back in gear and look forward to a very promising UFC 167. In the first fight we are covering we will see long time contender Josh Koscheck fighting against Tyron Woodley. Right now the bookies have this fight in the +100/-100 range making Woodley a slight favorite. Personally I think this line should be a little further apart because as much as I like Koscheck... Woodley appears to be a younger, stronger and better version of Koscheck, especially when it seems that Koscheck’s career may be in its twilight. While I like Woodley for the win, I wouldn’t completely count Kos out as he has always been a game fighter capable of the upset. Both of these men have similar skill sets and are difficult to take down so I expect the fight to remain on the feet after extensive feeling out in the early stanza.
If this fight does indeed play out on the feet for the majority of the time I think that what will make the difference is who decides to step out of the feeling out phase and go straight into being the aggressor. The reason this is significant is because as strikers both of these men seem to aim being a counter striker but at the same time they are susceptible to the proper combination of skill and aggression. This is one of many reasons why I like T-Wood to win. While Koscheck has some power in his hands, he isn’t as accurate as Woodley and his striking pattern is fairly predictable. This predictability has been shown time and time again(case in point in his title fight against GSP) and I think there is an established blueprint for beating Koscheck and Woodley has great potential to follow said blueprint.I think a good path to victory for Woodley would be to start to pressure early, mostly on the feet because I think Koscheck is more than ready for a wrestling attack and you wouldn’t want to expend too much energy trying to tackle a fresh Kos.
In the same breath though, I don’t think that Koscheck would want to earnestly pursue takedowns early for the exact same reason, especially when we consider that Woodley is probably the stronger of the two and hard to takedown as well. A good route for Koscheck to pursue in my opinion is to once again, start the pressure early and go for the takedowns in the later rounds when Woodley isn’t as fresh. Maybe press him against the cage a bit but the problem is I also think this could play into Woodley’s hands a bit. Cardio will make a difference if this turns from striking into a war of attrition, and I think Woodley wins here as well. To be honest though, I don’t want to see a smart fight from Woodley. He has the capability to win this decisively on the feet and I would love to see him have more faith in his hands.
While faith in his hands would be a good thing he would also be wise to not overlook the potential for being on the receiving end of a counter that will put him to sleep. In this fight Woodley can afford to be confident but not reckless and I do not think this will be too tall of a task considering that Woodley tends to be more active on the feet. The reason he needs to be careful though is because he isn’t exactly the hardest dude to hit in at this level, I mean really.. Just look out for that overhand right Woodley. I want Koscheck to win, I really do but I think he will have a very hard time winning this one. Ideally what I want is Koscheck to hit this guy with a vicious counter early and put T-Wood to sleep. As I wipe the drool though, and wake up from this dream I see Woodley taking a unanimous decision or a TKO late.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Rory Macdonald vs Robbie Lawler
Rory Macdonald is probably a serial killer and I am not referring to his style of fighting(though equally brutal). He is just ice cold, calculated, and well, weird to be honest. I like his fighting though, but I often struggle to wrap my head around his personality and sometimes the choices he makes in the octagon like against Ellenberger(too tepid IMO) and Penn(the finish was there). I really like this kid but I hate him when I consider that he is fighting Robbie Lawler. Lawler is someone I remember from the old school and has been knocking people out ever since. I like Rory though because he is a finisher and as someone who has been following MMA for a while now, I feel that this new crop of fighters often fight too safe or too wrestling centric for my liking. Macdonald is also well rounded having excellent command of his skills whether on the feet, on the matt, or even against the cage. Though far from a one trick Pony I feel that Lawler has less tools in his belt than Macdonald which may prove to his detriment depending on how Macdonald wants to play this one.
By now you should have gathered that I like Rory for the win and if you have read enough of my stuff, I am still rooting for the underdog despite this. I am a fan of the old school and I LOVE bangers like Robbie Lawler. The way he justs dust people is ruthless which has a lot to do with why that is his nickname. That being said, I am not expecting anything particularly exciting out of this match up. I think it might play out a lot like Ellenberger vs. Macdonald as it is a very similar matchup. While Lawler tends to not use his wrestling as much, he uses it to make himself hard to takedown and even harder to keep there. Macdonald poses the same problem as well, but tends to use his wrestling more offensively whereas Lawler uses it defensively. As far as advantages of note what immediately comes to mind is the fact that Macdonald has a reach advantage of three inches and is also adept using his length to dictate the pace and keep his opponents off balance and unable to get off any real power. He will need to use this against Lawler as not only does Lawler like to counterstrike, he tends to throw heat. Cardio, and age are some other things that may favor Macdonald.
Though I don’t think Lawler has much opportunity to land any power shots(and the bookies agree with lines in the neighborhood of -300/+300 favoring Macdonald) Rory needs to remember what happened to him in the fight against Condit. He was winning the fight quite decisively and well, got caught. Mike Tyson said it best “everyone has a plan... Until they get hit” and simply put Macdonald needs to respect Lawler’s gangsta. He needs to keep him guessing with a multi leveled striking offensive while occasionally mixing in the takedowns. Maybe not pursuing them too earnestly as you don’t want to get caught with a slick counter coming in or out, nor would Macdonald want to expend too much cardio here. So, how does Lawler win? I think Lawler needs to do as much as possible to keep Macdonald on the outside and look for opportunities to counter.
I think such opportunities can be found in transitional periods, such as from mid range to clinch, etc. What will also be necessary for Lawler to stay in this thing and shut the bookies up is to make sure his gas tank is nice and deep for this fight. Not only does Macdonald kill cardio with an aggressive attack,he is also fairly durable so just maybe his best time to get the KO would be in the later rounds like Condit did. Who knows? Maybe even use the wrestling a bit to create some scrambles thus creating more opportunities to catch Macdonald off balance with a nice counter. What I think is most likely will play out is a fairly tepid striking affair. Where we see Macdonald popping in and out with jabs(with a high rate of accuracy) where we see Lawler trying to get that one perfect shot in. I’m hoping we see an upset KO but I think a decision is more likely. After getting KO’d by Condit, I think Rory is more careful than ever and will make few if any noticeable mistakes for Lawler to capitalize on. That being said, Lawler is a seasoned vet and this is why I hold on to some hope that we see him win via spectacular KO rather than Rory win by Unanimous decision.
Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Robbie Lawler -vs- Bobby Voelker
As MMA ages the faces get newer and as a fan from the old school I always find myself unsure of how I feel about the vast changes that come with the progression of time. In this fight we pit Robbie “Ruthless” Lawler against Bobby Voelker. I already like Voelker’s demeanor right off the bat because he is taking this fight on extremely short notice which is pretty old school... and ballsy. Interestingly enough he is also the third scheduled opponent after the injury bug struck his original opponent Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahadurzada... I would like to take the time to say how thankful I am I do not have to type that name multiple times here. He is a great fighter but dammit if that name isn’t hard to type. Anyway, I digress, now time to discuss the fight but it should be obvious who I am rooting for. Robbie fuckin Lawler whom I might add, has been around since the early days of the UFC and is always entertaining.
Let’s look at this thing starting with what Vegas thinks. Right now we have Lawler at as high as -303 to a perceived average for Voelker of +255 which I think is a little high but not off considering the fact that Voelker is taking this fight on not even two weeks notice. I think that if anything, “Vicious” Bobby Voelker is a better stylistic match up than the original two opponents. Reason being both fighters are seasoned, hard nosed strikers with a chin to boot. I don’t anticipate much grappling though I would like to add that Voelker would be wise to mix in some wrestling as all Lawler needs is one punch to have you counting sheep in front of millions. I think that even given proper notice,Voelker is in for a challenge as Lawler has slick counter punching ability combined with lethal power. Voelker is game though, I worry about his cardio given the short notice and luckily he was already in camp for a fight against James Head.
I think Voelker can pull the upset but I feel fairly confident in picking Lawler to win, sure I think this thing could very well be a finish for Lawler but I would not be surprised if I saw a decision as Voelker is pretty durable. So how can Voelker win this thing? Let’s start with the strategy I do not see him taking which is intermixing striking and wrestling to keep Lawler at bay en route to a late finish or split decision. Another way Voelker can win is by remaining calm and capitalizing on Lawler’s blood lust when he is chasing a finish. I don’t think this will be too much of a problem considering Voelker’s experience. When Lawler at it his most reckless is when he is chasing the finish and it might not be hard to land a fight altering punch or two. I feel that the latter of these two scenarios are likely but I still expect Lawler to pull off the win.
In this fight I feel that the intangibles won’t be much of a factor in this figh though if relevant I feel they certainly value Voelker. I say that because I feel that Voelker is very hungy and eager to prove his worth in the UFC which face it is cut throat at best. Coming off of a close loss, Voelker is eager to prove that he can win and isn’t afraid of a stiff challenge. Though considering how tough of a fight this is, I wouldn’t undervalue Voelker. Though the dog is tempting at as high as +355 I wouldn’t take it because of how much of a challenge this fight. Sure, Voelker isn’t inexperienced but let’s face it, this is the best fighter he has ever faced and the hardest hitter as well. He isn’t some punchdrunk hack, he is technical, he is tough, and he can put your lights out like that. War Lawler.
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Chael Sonnen vs Rashad Evans
Ok, let’s start this out with a disclaimer: I am a die hard Chael Sonnen fan, so I will try to keep this at bay during this analysis I can make no promises. Anyway, I have been looking forward to this fight for a minute, as a long time favorite of both of these guys I will be disappointed regardless of the outcome but I think this should make for a fairly entertaining fight. Right now, Evans is the favorite as far as most bookies are concerned with odds hovering around -230/+17 0 favoring Evans. I do not think that this is too far off as even though Sonnen has looked impressive as of late at 205, Rashad Evans has simply proven more in the upper echelons of the light heavyweight division.But, to be honest I think that Sonnen is simply overlooked here.
What does everyone know going into this fight? Evans is definitely faster, and though being shorter than Sonnen he does have a very slight reach advantage which will help him out. Evans really needs to make sure he capitalizes on the speed advantage to keep Sonnen chasing him as I think that if Sonnen is able to stay close and play his game this will be a very long night for Rashad Evans. Want to know something you probably wouldn’t guess? Though Evans appears to have better striking, he is slightly less accurate than Sonnen(Fight Metric has Sonnen at 43% accuracy to Evan’s %38) and also gets hit more often (FM has Evans at 2.21 strikes absorbed per Minute where Sonnen is at .94) which is why I think things will not end well for him if he cannot keep his distance from Sonnen. I highly doubt we will see Evans pursue a wrestling based offensive against the bigger and stronger Sonnen as that can eat a lot of his cardio and open himself up to a takedown or throw.
Bottom line, in terms of a fight you do not want to be under Chael P. Sonnen, once he is on top of you it is extremely difficult to do anything to stop him. Though he has been submitted before, he is skilled enough to stay in the guard at will and fight off submission attempts from most fighters. This is why I think that Evans might seek to see how this will play out on the feet. Maintaining distance is important but also cage awareness is going to be very, very important. With the way Sonnen likes to apply pressure, Evans will need to realize that if he doesn’t utilize astute lateral movement he will find himself against the cage again and again. Though he is no slouch against the cage, Sonnen is equally good if not better. I also do not see him catching Sonnen coming after him ala Chuck Liddell. In this particular fight, against the cage is exactly where Evans does not want to be and will need to avoid at all costs. At close quarters his speed advantage will be diminished if not negated.
I think Rashad Evans still has some avenues to win this fight. What he is going to want to do is find a way to discourage Sonnen from moving forward. I think this could be accomplished with a few takedown attempts early, and leg kicks can make a difference. Though the effect of leg kicks are not immediate they do have a cumulative effect and pay dividends if an early finish is not executed. This will be an excellent tool for Evans as Sonnen tends to not tire easily and if his lead leg is chewed up, it will be harder for him to move forward as effectively. One can also never rule out a KO from Evans whether with the hands or a kick as he is lightning fast and decidedly adept at throwing these at just the right moment. This doesn’t change my opinion that Sonnen needs to press forward to get the win but it does mean that he needs to keep a solid guard and make sure he doesn’t get caught. Let’s be real, Sonnen doesn’t often finish fights early if at all which is why he needs to remain vigilant to ensure he doesn’t get finished. I like Sonnen to win via unanimous decision but I wouldn’t be floored if Evans won.
